Predictions for this week
Juventus vs Cagliari
Juventus
45%
Juventus
52%AC Milan vs Lazio
AC Milan
46%Lecce vs Torino
Lecce
35%Pisa vs Inter
Inter
47%
Inter
54%Atalanta vs Fiorentina
Fiorentina
36%AS Roma vs Napoli
AS Roma
48%
AS Roma
54%Bologna vs Cremonese
Bologna
65%
Bologna
67%Matchweek 13 in Serie A looks like a weekend written by defensive coaches: the model leans heavily towards low-scoring games, backs only one side with real conviction, and treats several big-name clashes as tense, tactical battles rather than open spectacles. Across the slate, Under 2.5 is the recurring theme, while a handful of home sides – most notably Bologna – emerge as the clearest anchors in an otherwise cautious board.
Serie A Matchweek 13: where the numbers are pointing
The model gives us a scattered hierarchy of favourites. Bologna at home to Cremonese are the only side to hit 65% in the 1X2 market, while a cluster of teams – Como, AS Roma, AC Milan, Juventus, Genoa – sit in the 45–50% range. There is even a fixture, Lecce vs Torino, where the model clearly prefers the draw over either side.
| Match | Market | Model lean | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como vs Sassuolo (Fri 28 Nov) | 1X2 | Como | 50% |
| Genoa vs Verona (Sat 29 Nov) | 1X2 | Genoa | 45% |
| Juventus vs Cagliari (Sat 29 Nov) | 1X2 | Juventus | 45% |
| AC Milan vs Lazio (Sat 29 Nov) | 1X2 | AC Milan | 46% |
| AS Roma vs Napoli (Sun 30 Nov) | 1X2 | AS Roma | 48% |
That first layer already tells a story: most favourites are only slight favourites. Bologna apart, this is a matchweek built on fine margins. Como’s 50% at home to Sassuolo is essentially a coin flip with a touch of home bias, and even Roma’s 48% against Napoli leaves plenty of room for things to go wrong.
Roma vs Napoli and Milan vs Lazio: heavyweight games, conservative scripts
The headline fixtures belong to the capital and San Siro. AS Roma vs Napoli and AC Milan vs Lazio are exactly the kind of games where the public expects drama; the model expects discipline.
Roma are given a 48% chance of victory at home, with Under 2.5 goals at 58% and “First team to score – Roma” at 54%. Milan sit on 46% to beat Lazio, with Under 2.5 at a robust 65% and BTTS No at 59%. In both cases, the numbers suggest carefully-managed battles rather than end-to-end chaos.
| Match & market | Model favourite | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma vs Napoli – 1X2 | AS Roma | 48% |
| AS Roma vs Napoli – First team to score | AS Roma | 54% |
| AS Roma vs Napoli – Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58% |
| AC Milan vs Lazio – 1X2 | AC Milan | 46% |
| AC Milan vs Lazio – Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65% |
Editorially, the signal is clear: the safer story is about control, not fireworks. The model believes Roma are slightly more likely to strike first and then impose their rhythm, while Milan are framed as the team more capable of turning a tight game into a narrow home win. A frantic 3–3 in either stadium would go directly against these numbers.
The strongest model leans: low totals and Bologna’s big opportunity
When you look for the model’s most confident calls, they cluster around two ideas: low totals and one standout home favourite. Bologna are given a 65% chance to beat Cremonese and a 67% chance to score first – a rare double endorsement in a cautious matchweek. Around them, the strictest predictions concern games that the model expects to be tight and, frankly, a little dry.
The clearest unders and “no” calls are spread across mid-table fixtures and one heavyweight visit:
| Fixture | Market | Model lean | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce vs Torino | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76% |
| Pisa vs Inter | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75% |
| Lecce vs Torino | BTTS | No | 68% |
| Pisa vs Inter | BTTS | No | 67% |
| Bologna vs Cremonese | First team to score | Bologna | 67% |
These numbers are not whispers; they are strong suggestions. Lecce–Torino and Pisa–Inter are being treated almost as anti-spectacles: heavy favourites for Under 2.5, and clear expectations that at least one side will leave without scoring. Bologna–Cremonese, in contrast, is where the model is happy to pick a side and stick with it.
If you are looking for “mejores” model calls in this Serie A round, they sit here: Bologna’s home dominance, and a collection of matches where the safest story is that very little actually happens in front of goal.
Risk radar: favourites with fragile backing
Below that top tier, a lot of favourites live dangerously. Several sides are backed in the 1X2 market with only 40–46% probability, which means that while the model prefers them to any single alternative, it still considers “something else” more likely overall.
That group includes Parma, Juventus, Genoa, AC Milan and even AS Roma. Add in the fact that some of these games are paired with more attacking profiles, and you get fixtures that are made for swings and upsets rather than calm, linear narratives.
| Match | Favoured outcome | Probability | Risk tag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma vs Udinese | Parma win (1X2) | 40% | Very high risk home lean |
| Genoa vs Verona | Genoa win (1X2) | 45% | Fragile home favourite |
| Juventus vs Cagliari | Juventus win (1X2) | 45% | Big name, modest edge |
| AC Milan vs Lazio | AC Milan win (1X2) | 46% | High-profile but tight |
| AS Roma vs Napoli | AS Roma win (1X2) | 48% | Slight home edge only |
These are the fixtures that deserve a clear warning label. The model may shade them towards the home side, but not strongly enough to call them safe. For Parma, the warning is even louder: their 40% is paired with BTTS Yes at 56% and Over 2.5 at 53%, a mixture that screams volatility more than control.
Juventus and Genoa fall into another delicate category: teams the algorithm prefers, but in games it still expects to stay narrow and low-scoring. One set-piece, one lapse, and the entire prediction can flip.
Predictions to treat with caution
Finally, there is a group of calls that have an opinion but lack the conviction to be centrepieces. These are the 53–56% leans that help colour a preview but should not dominate it: useful for understanding the likely shape of a match, less so for making big claims.
Parma–Udinese is the clearest example: BTTS Yes at 56% and Over 2.5 at 53% suggest an open game, but they sit alongside a very modest 40% nod towards Parma. Juventus–Cagliari has Under 2.5 at 55% and Juventus first to score at 52%, which nudges towards a controlled home win but stops well short of any strong declaration.
| Match | Market | Model lean | Probability | Editorial verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma vs Udinese | BTTS | Yes | 56% | Goals likely, but winner unclear |
| Parma vs Udinese | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | Slight tilt towards an open game |
| Juventus vs Cagliari | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55% | Quiet home win scenario, not guaranteed |
| Atalanta vs Fiorentina | BTTS | No | 55% | One side blank more likely than not |
| Como vs Sassuolo | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54% | Lean to a tight opener, edge is thin |
These calls are best treated as supporting actors. They help sketch a landscape in which several Serie A games are more likely to be decided by one or two key moments than by sustained attacking waves. But if you need to cut through the noise and focus on what truly defines this matchweek, you come back to the same core messages.
Serie A Matchweek 13 is framed by a model that trusts Bologna at home, expects Roma and Milan to edge tense heavyweight clashes, and sees a long list of fixtures drifting towards low-scoring outcomes. The rest – Parma’s volatility, Juventus’ modest edge, Genoa’s fragile favourite status – simply tells you where the weekend might suddenly tear up the script.