Predictions for this week
Getafe vs Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
50%Oviedo vs Real Betis
Real Betis
63%
Real Betis
65%Villarreal vs Alaves
Villarreal
39%Girona vs Osasuna
Osasuna
51%Valencia vs Elche
Elche
41%Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca
Rayo Vallecano
41%Levante vs Espanyol
Espanyol
44%Sevilla vs Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
48%
Celta Vigo
55%
La Liga predictions for this week
This Matchweek doesn’t read like a “pick the winners” round — it reads like a tempo round. The model is far clearer about how games should behave than about who should win. On one side you’ve got two near-shout levels of low-scoring control (Oviedo–Celta and Athletic–Espanyol). On the other, there’s one fixture that basically waves a neon sign for goals: Villarreal vs Barcelona (Over 2.5 at 74%, BTTS Yes at 73). In between sits the messy middle: fragile 1X2 leans and a lot of matches where the safer story is the market profile, not the badge.
La Liga: 1X2 leans (use them as “preferences”, not certainties)
If you want a clean 1X2 headline, there are only two candidates: Celta Vigo (60%) and Real Sociedad (58%). Everything else lives in that uncomfortable zone where the model is naming the likeliest single outcome, but not separating it from the alternatives — including Real Madrid at 42% and Barcelona at 45%, which is basically “edge” territory, not dominance.
| Match | Kick-off | Market | Model lean | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia vs Mallorca | Fri 19 Dec 20:00 | 1X2 | Valencia | 38% |
| Oviedo vs Celta Vigo | Sat 20 Dec 13:00 | 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 60% |
| Levante vs Real Sociedad | Sat 20 Dec 15:15 | 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 58% |
| Osasuna vs Alaves | Sat 20 Dec 17:30 | 1X2 | Alaves | 41% |
| Real Madrid vs Sevilla | Sat 20 Dec 20:00 | 1X2 | Real Madrid | 42% |
| Girona vs Atletico Madrid | Sun 21 Dec 13:00 | 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 44% |
| Villarreal vs Barcelona | Sun 21 Dec 15:15 | 1X2 | Barcelona | 45% |
| Elche vs Rayo Vallecano | Sun 21 Dec 17:30 | 1X2 | Elche | 43% |
| Real Betis vs Getafe | Sun 21 Dec 20:00 | 1X2 | Real Betis | 41% |
| Athletic Club vs Espanyol | Mon 22 Dec 20:00 | 1X2 | Espanyol | 45% |
Two games that look “locked-down”
If you want the most confident scripts on the slate, start here. Oviedo vs Celta Vigo is the model’s loudest low-event call: BTTS No (71%) and Under 2.5 (70%). Then Athletic Club vs Espanyol goes even harder on the total: Under 2.5 (75%) with BTTS No (69%). Different matches, same story: chances may come, but goals are not treated as a default.
| Match | Market | Model lean | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo vs Celta Vigo | BTTS | No | 71% |
| Oviedo vs Celta Vigo | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70% |
| Athletic Club vs Espanyol | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75% |
| Athletic Club vs Espanyol | BTTS | No | 69% |
Villarreal vs Barcelona: the week’s “goal explosion” signal
This is the opposite energy. Over 2.5 (74%) and BTTS Yes (73%) is the model describing a match where both teams are expected to create enough to score — and where the overall tempo should stay aggressive. The 1X2 lean (Barcelona 45%) is not a strong winner call; it’s more like the model saying, “if you force me to pick a side, I’ll lean Barça,” but the real conviction is in the match being alive in both boxes.
| Market | Model lean | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% |
| BTTS | Yes | 73% |
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 45% |
The “open game” cluster: where BTTS/Over is doing the talking
A few more fixtures lean into the same theme — not at Villarreal–Barça levels, but enough to frame them as high-event games. Betis vs Getafe is the standout of the second tier (BTTS 66%, Over 65%). Osasuna vs Alaves and Real Madrid vs Sevilla both land on the same profile (BTTS 59%, Over 56%), which is the model saying the match is more likely to open up than stay sterile.
| Match | Market | Model lean | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis vs Getafe | BTTS | Yes | 66% |
| Real Betis vs Getafe | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% |
| Osasuna vs Alaves | BTTS | Yes | 59% |
| Osasuna vs Alaves | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% |
| Real Madrid vs Sevilla | BTTS | Yes | 59% |
| Real Madrid vs Sevilla | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% |
| Girona vs Atletico Madrid | BTTS | Yes | 56% |
| Girona vs Atletico Madrid | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% |
Matches to label as “thin edges”
These are the spots where the model has a view, but only a light one — good for preview texture, not for bold claims. Valencia–Mallorca leans Under 2.5 (57%) with a very slim BTTS No (51%). Elche–Rayo leans more clearly to a tight game (Under 2.5 58%, BTTS No 53%). And Levante–Sociedad is a “control away” script: Sociedad 58% 1X2, score first 62%, and a modest Under 2.5 56%.
| Match | Market | Model lean | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia vs Mallorca | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57% |
| Valencia vs Mallorca | BTTS | No | 51% |
| Elche vs Rayo Vallecano | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58% |
| Elche vs Rayo Vallecano | BTTS | No | 53% |
| Levante vs Real Sociedad | First team to score | Real Sociedad | 62% |
| Levante vs Real Sociedad | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56% |
How to frame this Matchweek in one clean narrative
- Lead with the extremes: Villarreal–Barcelona as the “goals” flagship (74/73), and Athletic–Espanyol + Oviedo–Celta as the “locked-down” flagships (75/69 and 71/70).
- Make winners secondary: outside Sociedad/Celta, most 1X2 leans are thin, so your strongest writing comes from market profiles.
- Use Betis–Getafe as the bridge: not as wild as Villarreal–Barça, but strong enough (66/65) to support the “open weekend” theme.
- Sprinkle the tight-game leans: Valencia–Mallorca and Elche–Rayo as controlled, lower-event supporting fixtures.
In short: this is a week where the model gives you two clear low-scoring anchors, one major goal-party headline, and a middle layer of fixtures where the safest insight is the tempo, not the trophy.