Barcelona vs Alaves: Head to Head & Predictions (29 Nov)

Back in La Liga, Barcelona return to a fixture that, on paper, offers control and clarity. The midweek agenda was sobering: a 3-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea beat a 10-man Barça and the headlines belonged to Estevao Willian. That result sharpened the scrutiny around the performance level, even if the domestic numbers suggest a side that has been scoring freely and starting games fast. A note from the club this week also trimmed their options: Fermín López is out for around two weeks, while broader reports spoke of a further injury setback. The mood music was mixed by a different kind of spotlight too, with Aitana Bonmati publicly underlining how undervalued Pedri can be in awards discourse — a reminder of where Barça’s creative burden often rests.

For Alaves, the stakes are humbler but no less important. They have 15 points from 13 league games (11 scored, 12 conceded) and recent form that veers between gritty and goal-shy. Their season profile is that of a side comfortable without the ball and willing to break rhythm — they commit an average of 16 fouls and keep games relatively low event. History in this fixture is unkind to them; the question is whether their structure can delay Barça long enough to seed doubt.

Form guide and trendlines

Recent data tells a simple story: Barcelona are creating and converting at volume; Alaves are trying to keep margins thin. Over their last 10, Barça have averaged 2.9 goals per game and have not failed to score once; Alaves are at 0.8 with a 50% rate of failing to score. The defensive contrast is smaller — a faint warning for the hosts against complacency.

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Last 10 trend	Barcelona BAR	Alaves ALA
Form (sequence)	WWWLWLWWWW	LLWLDWLDLW
Goals scored (avg)	2.9	0.8
Goals conceded (avg)	1.2	0.9
Failed to score	0%	50%
Clean sheets	3	2

Barça’s recent five-match sample skews high-event: 100% of those games have gone over 2.5 goals, with BTTS hitting 80%. Alaves’ last five point in the opposite direction: just 40% over 2.5 and 20% BTTS, although a 7-0 Copa del Rey win does inflate their conversion snapshot.

Head-to-head: history leans one way

The last decade of this fixture is blunt: Alaves have not won in the previous 10 league meetings, scoring six to Barça’s 26. Even when the margins are tight, the result has tended to tilt the same way.

H2H indicator (last 10)	Barcelona BAR	Alaves ALA
Total goals (last 10)	26	6
Wins (share)	8 (80%)	0 (0%)
Clean sheets	4	0

Recent results between the sides

The recent ledger backs up the broad pattern: narrow or comfortable, it has been Barcelona’s fixture.

Where this game could swing

Two numbers jump out. First, Barcelona’s “top minute” recently has been the opening quarter-hour (36% of their goals in that window across their last five) — the pattern of fast starts is real. Second, Alaves’ shot conversion has spiked to 69% across their last five fixtures, a quirk powered by a cup blowout but still a warning that even few chances could carry weight if Barça drift. Alaves’ league tendencies suggest they won’t commit early: they’ve scored first in just 31% of games this season.

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Attacking snapshot (last 5)	Barcelona BAR	Alaves ALA
Goals for	14	9
Shots on target	29	13
Shot conversion	48%	69%
Offsides (against)	16	7
Top minute window	0–15 (36%)	31–45 (33%)

There is also the calendar to consider. Barcelona host Atletico Madrid next, which can tempt rotation or early substitutions if the game state allows it. To avoid that scenario becoming risky, the onus is on intensity from the first whistle — particularly after the passive spells seen in London.

The model view and predictions

Models are emphatic about the likely direction of travel here, though the shape of the game remains open — whether a fast, open contest or a more methodical grind.

Possible paths:

• A convincing home win would steady the week after Stamford Bridge and reinforce the sense that Barça’s domestic attacking structure remains intact.
• A slow, narrow victory would be functional but keep debates alive about control and game management ahead of tougher tests.
• A laboured draw or slip would invite louder questions, particularly around chance prevention and how this group responds to adversity.

History and data point overwhelmingly to Barcelona. The test, after a bruising midweek, is how assertively they take what should be theirs.