Sunday, 30 November 2025 — 14:05 GMT. The fixture arrives with contrasting storylines: West Ham sit deep in the table after a difficult start to the season, while Liverpool arrive under acute pressure following a humiliating European defeat and a run of results that has put their manager, Arne Slot, squarely in the headlines.
Where the teams stand
West Ham have been bluntly underwhelming in the early weeks — 12 league games, 11 points, a -10 goal difference (15 scored, 25 conceded). Defensive frailties are obvious in the basic totals: conceding at a noticeably higher rate than they score.
Liverpool‘s summary across their recent campaign shows a side still producing goals (10 in their listed sample) and decent defensive numbers (8 conceded in that same sample), but the narrative is darker: recent heavy defeats and a run of poor results have triggered intense scrutiny.
| Head‑to‑head (last 10) |  West Ham WES |  Liverpool LIV |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 10) | 10 | 28 |
| Wins (last 10) | 1 | 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 10) | 0 | 3 |
Form and trends to know
West Ham’s statistics underline a team that is creating but leaking: their season totals show only 15 goals for across 12 games, but an unusually high ratio of games featuring both teams scoring — season BTTS at 58% and over 2.5 at 75% — suggesting matches involving them are frequently open and end-to-end.
Liverpool, meanwhile, carry stronger per-game attacking output and a slightly better defensive record in the sample provided, with BTTS at 60% and over 2.5 at 60%. Those percentages indicate Liverpool’s matches also tend to be entertaining; the numbers point to goals rather than sterile tactical stalemates.
| Season snapshot | West Ham WES | Liverpool LIV |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 12 | 5 |
| Points | 11 | 9 |
| W‑D‑L | 3‑2‑7 | 3‑0‑2 |
| GF‑GA | 15‑25 | 10‑8 |
| Goal difference | ‑10 | +2 |
Recent context and pressure
The media context around Liverpool is tense. After a 4‑1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven — a result referenced repeatedly in recent coverage — national outlets report this sequence sits amid a run described as the club’s worst in decades. The language in those reports is unambiguous: Arne Slot has acknowledged difficult conversations with the owners and called for the squad to “fight together”. Those quotes, and the accompanying questioning of his job security, will hang over the Anfield outfit heading into this match.
For West Ham, the internal mood is less publicly dramatic but statistics paint the picture: a porous defence and a heavy reliance on late goals (their top scoring window is 76–90 minutes). That tendency to concede and score late makes them unpredictable — dangerous in moments, fragile across 90 minutes.
| Form & attacking trends | West Ham WES | Liverpool LIV |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (season) | 58% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (season) | 75% | 60% |
| Scored first (season) | 25% | 40% |
| Min/goal (for) | 72 | 45 |
Market signals and match projection
Market and model snapshots in the provided data slightly favour Liverpool (a 51% probability to win), but there is a clear expectation of goals: over 2.5 is shown as more likely than not (62%) and BTTS at 56%. Those aggregated signals reflect the statistical story above — both clubs have matches that tend to produce goals and involve defensive vulnerability.
| Market pick | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match winner — Liverpool | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Both teams to score | 56% |
What to expect on the day
This is a fixture where context matters as much as raw numbers. Liverpool have the head‑to‑head advantage and market confidence, but they arrive with clear psychological fragility after that 4‑1 European defeat referenced in coverage and reported as part of a troubling sequence. West Ham’s season form suggests they are vulnerable — particularly defensively — but their games have been prone to late goals and open finishes.
Practical scenarios:
- A narrow Liverpool win would offer breathing space for Arne Slot and momentary relief in the boardroom conversations described in recent reports.
- A West Ham upset — or even a high‑scoring draw — would underline the home side’s tendency to produce lively, unpredictable matches and would amplify questions around Liverpool’s immediate capacity to recover.
- A low‑scoring Liverpool victory would be the least likely outcome by the markets, but it would point to a pragmatic response from Slot’s side under pressure.
This is a match where the expected themes are goals and tension: an energetic West Ham team that often sees late action, against a Liverpool side whose recent form has left managers and media searching for answers. The safest reading from the numbers supplied is for an open game with goals — and a Liverpool edge if they can steady the ship early.