Manchester City arrive with clear statistical advantages. Across the season they score more frequently (a goal every 45 minutes on average) and are far more likely to make the breakthrough early — they have scored first in 80% of matches recorded in the dataset. Leeds, by contrast, have managed only four goals in their last five games and register a shot on target far less often; their minutes-per-goal figure over that sample is a worrying 112.5.
The media spotlight adds a second narrative to this fixture. In a BBC Sport column former manager Tony Pulis suggested that Daniel Farke “probably feels like he is up to his neck in muck”, reflecting increased pressure after recent results that, according to the same coverage, left Farke’s side in the relegation zone.
Form and key indicators
This is a clash of contrasts: City’s underlying numbers underline control and attacking consistency; Leeds’ recent sample shows a team struggling to create and to finish chances. The tables below condense the most relevant metrics from the dataset.
| Key indicator | Manchester City MCI | Leeds LEE |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (Yes %) | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (%) | 40% | 80% |
| Scored first (%) | 80% | 60% |
| Min/Goal (For) | 45 | 112.5 |
Attacking patterns
City’s attacking output looks more efficient in volume and timing; their top minute window is 16–30, signalling a tendency to hit teams early in each half. Leeds show an unusual concentration of goals in the 0–15 window of their recent sample, but with only four goals in five matches this is more a quirk than a dependable pattern.
| Attacking metric | Manchester City MCI | Leeds LEE |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For (sample) | 10 (season) | 4 (last 5) |
| Shots on target | 38 | 19 |
| Shot conversion | 26% | 21% |
| Top minute window | 16-30 (30%) | 0-15 (100%) |
Defence and discipline
While City concede infrequently (min/goal against: 90), Leeds have been more porous in recent matches, conceding on average every 40.9 minutes in the last five. Discipline and set-piece volume also favour City: they average fewer fouls conceded and more corners won per game in the samples provided.
| Defensive / discipline | Manchester City MCI | Leeds LEE |
|---|---|---|
| Min/Goal (Against) | 90 | 40.9 |
| Avg fouls (committed) | 9.2 | 11 |
| Avg corners (for) | 5.6 | 4.4 |
| Avg cards (received) | 1.8 | 2.2 |
Schedule and momentum
City’s fixture list in the coming weeks is congested and high-profile; the dataset shows this game sits at the start of a busy sequence that includes domestic and continental commitments. Leeds face top-tier opponents in quick succession as well, which compounds the pressure on Daniel Farke after a run that, per match reports, includes heavy defeats and a reversal at Elland Road.
| Date | Manchester City MCI |
|---|---|
| Sat, 29 Nov 2025 | vs Leeds |
| Tue, 02 Dec 2025 | vs Fulham |
| Sat, 06 Dec 2025 | vs Sunderland |
| Wed, 10 Dec 2025 | vs Real Madrid |
| Sun, 14 Dec 2025 | vs Crystal Palace |
What to expect
City’s strengths — high chance volume, tendency to score early and greater defensive stability — point to them controlling large parts of this game. Leeds’ recent form and low attacking output suggest they will need a compact, organised approach and perhaps an early goal to change the dynamic.
Three plausible scenarios
- City win comfortably: Likely if they convert early chances and force Leeds out of shape; would strengthen their momentum across competitions.
- Tight win or draw: Possible if Leeds defend resolutely and exploit the counter in the opening 15 minutes where their recent goals have clustered; for City it would be a missed chance to consolidate form.
- Leeds shock result: Unlikely given the numbers, but a victory would relieve growing pressure on Daniel Farke and silence critics such as Tony Pulis in the short term.
Form and context both favour Manchester City, but football’s small margins mean Leeds still have a route to a result if they can turn early threat into tangible chances and tighten the minute-per-goal ratio at the back.