A clash between two sides travelling very different trajectories on paper. AS Roma arrive with a clear domestic rhythm — nine wins from 12, 27 points, and a +9 goal difference — while Napoli look patchier in the available numbers, with only six goals recorded in the sample shown and a negative goal difference. The raw data suggests a low-scoring, tight game at the Stadio Olimpico rather than a free‑wheeling shootout.
Season snapshot
This table summarises the core, season-long indicators given for both teams in the available dataset.
| Key indicator |  AS Roma ROM |  Napoli NAP |
|---|---|---|
| Points / Games | 27 / 12 | 7 / 5 |
| W‑D‑L | 9‑0‑3 | 2‑1‑2 |
| Goals For – Against | 15 – 6 | 6 – 9 |
| Goal difference | +9 | ‑3 |
| Shot conversion (season) | 24% | 35% |
Recent five‑match indicators
Ignore the noise of isolated results — these last‑five metrics give a cleaner read on current tendencies. They point to contrasting attacking rhythms: Roma have been more likely to score first and play into higher-scoring windows in their recent sample; Napoli’s last‑five numbers show fewer games opening up.
| Indicator (last 5) | AS Roma ROM | Napoli NAP |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (Yes %) | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 (%) | 40% | 20% |
| Scored first (%) | 80% | 40% |
| Min per goal (for) | 50 | 90 |
| Min per goal (against) | 150 | 150 |
Head‑to‑head context
The historical H2H numbers supplied show a clear edge to Napoli across the sample provided — more wins, more goals and more clean sheets — but recent encounters have produced draws and narrow margins. That mixed history suggests Roma cannot be dismissed despite the overall H2H deficit.
| H2H summary (last 10) | AS Roma ROM | Napoli NAP |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (last 10) | 1 (10%) | 5 (50%) |
| Goals (last 10) | 7 | 14 |
| Clean sheets (last 10) | 2 | 5 |
| Most recent meeting | 1–1 | |
Market view & what is being priced
The probability snapshot contained in the dataset favours the home side: AS Roma are shown as the likely winner in the market pick, while models lean towards a low total and no both‑teams‑to‑score outcome. That aligns with Roma’s tendency to score first in recent fixtures and Napoli’s relatively modest attacking return in the provided sample.
| Market pick / probability | AS Roma ROM | Napoli NAP |
|---|---|---|
| Match winner (1X2) | 52% (pick) | — |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 — 62% | — |
| BTTS | No — 51% | — |
How the game could play out
Three realistic scenarios emerge from the supplied data:
- Roma win (favoured by the market) — would underline their solidity this season: strong conversion rates and a habit of scoring first make them dangerous early on. A victory would reinforce the idea that Roma are the domestic form team in this sample.
- Low‑scoring draw — the combination of market odds leaning Under 2.5 and a modest BTTS probability points to a tight match decided by a single chance or a set-piece. The recent 1–1 meeting in the data shows that stalemate is plausible.
- Napoli upset — despite the numbers showing fewer goals in the supplied sample, H2H history gives Napoli an edge across several meetings. If Napoli find clinical form (their season shot conversion numbers imply that is possible) they can nick a result, and a narrow away win would erase some of the questions prompted by their recent sample.
Neither side is presented as invincible in the dataset. Expect a tactical game where margins are fine: a single moment or a defensive lapse — not a goal glut — looks most likely to decide this one.