Pisa vs Inter: Head to Head & Predictions (30 Nov)

Serie A action returns to Pisa on Sunday (30 November, 14:00 GMT) when Pisa host Inter. The data-driven picture is straightforward: Pisa arrive as a side struggling for consistency and goals, while Inter look far more efficient in both scoring and defending. That gap in quality — and form — is the clearest storyline ahead of kick-off.

Form and season numbers

Pisa sit 16th after 12 games (1-7-4) with only 10 goals scored and a -6 goal difference; they have shown stubbornness to grind out draws but are not scoring freely. Inter’s early sample (5 games in the table) reads very differently: 4 wins, 12 goals scored and only 3 conceded, a much healthier goal difference and a clean-sheet rate that underlines their defensive control.

Recent attacking form

Pisa’s last five fixtures show an uptick in finishing — the dataset reports seven goals in the most recent five — but their shot volume remains modest. Inter also have seven in their last five, yet with a superior shots-on-target return (30 for Inter versus 16 for Pisa in the last five). In short: similar recent goal returns, different underlying quality.

When they score — timing and tendencies

There is a clear difference in timing. Pisa’s season data flags a late-window tendency: their top minute window for the season is 76–90 (33%), while in the very recent sample their goals are concentrated early (0–15 for last five, 29%). That suggests a team that can both pounce early and nick late — although both trends coexist because of an inconsistent game model.

Inter look more likely to strike before half-time: season top window 31–45 (42%) and an 80% rate of having scored first in their recent sample. That points to a side that often controls games early and can force opponents to chase.

Team news and the media angle

Inter picked up a timely boost this week when Henrikh Mkhitaryan returned to full training after a muscular issue, according to reports. That matters: the dataset suggests Inter are already efficient in chance creation and protecting leads, and midfield reinforcements will only sharpen that edge.

The Italian press is keeping a close eye on managerial decisions. La Gazzetta dello Sport is reported discussing “the Lautaro case”, and there are mentions of Chivu coming under scrutiny in other roundups. Those narratives create noise — but the statistics side with Inter: a high shots-on-target rate, strong early scoring tendencies and an ability to reduce opponents’ chances.

Market view and likely outcomes

Market models in the dataset favour Inter heavily: a 72% probability of an Inter win, with 55% lean towards over 2.5 goals and a 55% preference for BTTS: No. That lines up with Inter’s strong defensive numbers and Pisa’s modest goal return; expect Inter to try to control early and deny Pisa rhythm, while Pisa will look for set-piece or late opportunities where their scoring has clustered this season.

Scenarios

If Inter start quickly and score in the first half — consistent with their 31–45 season peak and high “scored first” numbers — they should control the game and likely leave Pisa chasing. A late Pisa equaliser remains the clearest route to an upset: Pisa show a clear propensity to score in the final 15 minutes across the season data.

For Pisa, a compact defensive plan and threat from set-pieces or early counters offers the best chance of securing points. For Inter, integrating returning personnel such as Henrikh Mkhitaryan into a coherent midfield rhythm will be the test — and a decisive factor if they are to avoid an unnecessary scare at an opponent who can be dangerous in patches.