La Liga meets a midweek intensity on 30 November as Real Sociedad host Villarreal. The fixture arrives with contrasting rhythms: Real Sociedad are juggling a busy domestic and cup schedule and have seen mixed results, while Villarreal arrive with a run of poor league results but some encouraging noise in cup and European outings. The headlines this week, though, belong to a late squad blow for the hosts — Mikel Oyarzabal has been confirmed out with a hamstring problem, according to reporting by Yahoo. That absence shifts both tactical and psychological balance for Imanol’s side.
What the numbers say
Numbers from the season so far underline the difference in sample sizes and outcomes. Real Sociedad have played more domestic matches (13) and sit on 16 points with a narrow negative goal difference (17–18). Villarreal, in contrast, show a very small league sample (5 games), two goals scored and ten conceded, a run that leaves them with a single point from those matches. The two teams also present opposing probabilities around goal involvement: Real Sociedad are far likelier to feature both teams scoring, Villarreal much less so.
| Season snapshot |  Real Sociedad RSO |  Villarreal VIL |
|---|---|---|
| Games played (league) | 13 | 5 |
| Points | 16 | 1 |
| Goals For–Against | 17–18 | 2–10 |
| Goal difference | -1 | -8 |
Key performance metrics
The profile of each side is different. Real Sociedad’s matches are high in goal involvement — they show a strong BTTS rate — while Villarreal’s season figures point to a side struggling to create and finish in league action. Corner stats and minutes-per-goal further emphasise a more active attacking baseline for the hosts.
| Key metric | Real Sociedad RSO | Villarreal VIL |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (Yes % — season) | 77% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 (season) | 54% | 40% |
| Scored first (season) | 31% | 20% |
| Avg corners (for) | 6.23 | 2.6 |
Recent head-to-head and form narrative
The fixture between these sides has been competitive in recent seasons: across the listed head-to-head sequence both have scored 13 goals, but Real Sociedad have a slight edge in wins in the sample. Recent meetings show a mix of narrow wins, draws and one-sided scores; the last five include a 2–2 draw and several close games.
| Head-to-head | Real Sociedad RSO | Villarreal VIL |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (recent H2H sample) | 13 | 13 |
| Wins (recent H2H) | 4 (40%) | 3 (30%) |
| Clean sheets (H2H) | 3 | 1 |
Market signals and likely game shape
The market information in the available data gives a nuanced picture: Villarreal are shown as the narrow market pick for the match-winner in the supplied prediction block, but broader indicators favour goals and both teams scoring. Those metrics align with the contrasting samples — Real Sociedad’s matches are usually livelier, Villarreal’s league matches so far have been low on goals scored but leaky defensively.
| Market indicator | Real Sociedad RSO | Villarreal VIL |
|---|---|---|
| Market favourite (1X2) | – | 45% |
| BTTS probability | 81% | 81% |
| Over 2.5 (market) | 51% | 51% |
Tactical implications and selection questions
The confirmed absence of Mikel Oyarzabal is the clearest selection headache for the home side. Losing a captain-level attacking presence (as described in the injury bulletin) not only reduces goal threat but forces a reconfiguration of who carries creative responsibility and who takes set-piece duties. For Villarreal, the bigger problem this season has been a lack of cutting edge — two league goals in five matches — and a defence that has already conceded ten. Against a Real Sociedad side that averages more corners and shots, Villarreal will face pressure to rearrange the defensive block and find quicker transitions to trouble the hosts.
Three realistic scenarios
- A high-scoring home match — Real Sociedad’s openness and BTTS-heavy profile could lead to an end-to-end game; a win for the hosts would steady their domestic campaign and mask the impact of Oyarzabal’s absence.
- A cagey Villarreal upset — if Villarreal can keep the match tight and exploit set-pieces or counter-attacks, a narrow away win would signal their ability to grind out results despite low scoring numbers.
- Draw with goals — market metrics point to BTTS and Over 2.5 as likely outcomes; a draw would underline the current inconsistency of both squads and leave questions about both sides’ next steps.
Whichever outcome arrives, the game will be read as evidence of the immediate health of each project: a Real Sociedad victory would lift mood and cover for rotation and injury; Villarreal leaving with points would be a clear sign that their early-season league troubles are being solved. Conversely, another poor result for Villarreal would deepen the scrutiny on their league form; another flat Real Sociedad display, especially without Oyarzabal, would intensify conversation about squad depth and fixture congestion.