Cagliari sit in the lower reaches with 11 points from 13 games, scoring 13 and conceding 19. The picture is clear: goals are scarce and they rarely seize the initiative (only 23% of league matches started with them scoring first). AS Roma, fourth on 27 points, offer a very different profile — pragmatic, controlled, and defensively reliable: just seven conceded in 13, which works out at a goal every 167 minutes.
History leans heavily one way. Across the last 10 league meetings, Roma have won seven, with Cagliari taking just one. Recent chapters include a 1–0 Roma win in March 2025 and a 4–0 in February 2024, though a goalless draw in August 2024 is a reminder that if Roma don’t accelerate, this fixture can stall.
Season snapshot: standings and core trends
On the season’s evidence, Roma keep games tight while Cagliari struggle to tilt margins. The data points to a low-scoring tilt unless the visitors find an early breakthrough.
| Season indicator |  Cagliari CAG |  AS Roma ROM |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15 | 4 |
| Points | 11 | 27 |
| Goals For–Against | 13–19 | 15–7 |
| BTTS (Yes) | 54% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 23% |
Form and momentum: last five matches
Roma’s recent rhythm is more decisive: they’ve scored first in 80% of their last five across competitions, with a sharper attacking tempo (a goal every 50 minutes). Cagliari’s last five include a 3–3 with Genoa and a 0–0 at Como, but the broader pattern is still one of reactive football and thin margins.
| Last 5 indicator | Cagliari CAG | AS Roma ROM |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 20% | 80% |
| Min/goal (For) | 90 | 50 |
| Min/goal (Against) | 50 | 150 |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60% | 40% |
| Goals scored | 5 | 9 |
How they attack: volume, conversion and timing
Roma don’t drown teams in chances but they manage the moments. Season-long, their top scoring window is minutes 16–30; in the last five it shifts to 61–75, aligning with that controlled, second-half squeeze. Cagliari’s best window sits just before the interval (31–45), but the overall shot volume is modest.
| Attacking (season) | Cagliari CAG | AS Roma ROM |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 42 | 65 |
| Shot conversion | 31% | 23% |
| Top minute window | 31–45 | 16–30 |
| Avg time per goal (For) | 90 min | 78 min |
| Avg time per goal (Against) | 61.6 min | 167.1 min |
Set-plays, discipline and territorial pressure
Set-piece and territorial clues tilt towards Roma: they average more corners for and concede fewer. Cagliari’s card count is higher, which matters in a match that models as tight on goals and territory. If the hosts are forced into repeated defensive phases, pressure might eventually tell.
| Season discipline/territory | Cagliari CAG | AS Roma ROM |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (avg) | 3.38 | 5.62 |
| Corners against (avg) | 5.54 | 3.46 |
| Cards received (avg) | 2.62 | 2.08 |
| Offsides against | 20 | 19 |
Model view: control and a low ceiling
The modelling mirrors the eye test: Roma are favoured, but not by a margin that invites complacency. The balance of probabilities points to a match that could be decided by one goal or a set-piece detail.
| Market probabilities | Cagliari CAG | AS Roma ROM |
|---|---|---|
| Match winner | — | 55% |
| Under 2.5 goals | — | 57% |
| BTTS: No | — | 58% |
What it would mean
A Roma win would consolidate a top-four pace and keep their defensive identity front and centre; it would also ease the sting of their 0–1 reverse to Napoli at the end of November, set against a solid run in Europe. A tight draw, especially if it drags into a low-chance contest, would underline how thin their attacking margins can be (15 league goals in 13). For Cagliari, even a point against a controlled opponent would feel like a platform; a rare win in this fixture would be a genuine reset for a side that has scored first in less than a quarter of their games.
The trend lines point one way, but the warning for Roma is familiar: fail to accelerate, and Sardinia has shown it can turn a dominant script into a stalemate.