Verona return to Serie A action with the weight of a winless league start and a bruising recent history in this fixture. They have taken just six points from 13 matches (0 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats) and scored eight times. Across the last five outings in all competitions the picture hasn’t brightened much — defeats to Genoa and Parma sandwiched a goalless draw at Lecce, after losses to Inter and Como. In short: they compete in spells, but lack a convincing end product.
Atalanta, by contrast, arrive with a more stable platform. Three wins in their last five across competitions — including a 2-0 over Fiorentina and a 3-1 against Napoli — signal a side that can shift gears when needed, even if European away days at Marseille and Frankfurt reminded them of their limits. The 2-0 against Fiorentina even left a ripple off the pitch — as reported by Yahoo Sports, Edin Dzeko’s post-match conversation with fans has drawn disciplinary scrutiny — a small measure of how decisive that Atalanta win felt in Florence.
Form guide and underlying trends
The numbers over the last 10 matches underline the contrast. Verona’s scoring rate is thin and they’ve failed to register in four of those 10. Atalanta’s ceiling remains higher, and they’re quietly tidier without the ball too.
| Last 10 snapshot |  Verona VER |  Atalanta ATA |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 10) | LLDLLDDLLD | WLLLDDDDDW |
| Goals scored (avg) | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
Attack v defence: efficiency and timing
There’s a stark difference in conversion. Verona have required volume to make a dent — 61 shots on target for eight goals this season (13% conversion) — whereas Atalanta have found 16 league goals from 57 on target (28%). The visitors tend to strike either side of the interval; Verona get most joy in the 16–30 minute window but rarely score first (15% this season), which keeps them chasing matches.
| Attacking efficiency (season) | Verona VER | Atalanta ATA |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 8 | 16 |
| Shots on target | 61 | 57 |
| Shot conversion | 13% | 28% |
| Top minute window | 16–30 (33%) | 31–45 (35%) |
| Scored first (season) | 15% | 46% |
Margins, set pieces and discipline
Small details point towards an Atalanta tilt in territory and control. They take more corners and draw fewer cards, while Verona’s average card count suggests they’ll need to walk a tightrope out of possession. If this becomes a game of restarts, Atalanta’s delivery volume could matter.
| Set-piece & discipline (season) | Verona VER | Atalanta ATA |
|---|---|---|
| Avg corners (for) | 3.77 | 5.69 |
| Avg corners (against) | 4.15 | 3.69 |
| Avg cards (received) | 2.69 | 1.62 |
| Offsides against | 27 | 22 |
| BTTS (season) | 54% | 62% |
Table picture and what’s at stake
The raw table stakes are stark. Verona are bottom with eight scored and 20 conceded, and still chasing a first league win. Atalanta sit mid-pack with a positive goal difference, trending upwards domestically.
| Table & record (season) | Verona VER | Atalanta ATA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 20 | 11 |
| Played | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 0–6–7 | 3–7–3 |
| Goals F–A | 8–20 | 16–14 |
| Points | 6 | 16 |
History that still stings for Verona
Recent head‑to‑head meetings have been lopsided: Atalanta have seven wins from the last 10, 23 goals scored to Verona’s nine, and four clean sheets in that run. The two most recent clashes were emphatic statements — 6-1 in Bergamo in October 2024 and 5-0 in Verona in February 2025 — results that set a demanding psychological backdrop for the hosts.
| Date | Fixture | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 2025 | Verona vs Atalanta | 0–5 |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Atalanta vs Verona | 6–1 |
| 15 Apr 2024 | Atalanta vs Verona | 2–2 |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Verona vs Atalanta | 0–1 |
| 20 May 2023 | Atalanta vs Verona | 3–1 |
Model view: low margin, visitors favoured
Kickwie’s model leans toward Atalanta in the 1X2, and anticipates a cagey scoreline despite Verona’s recent high “Over” rate. That’s consistent with Atalanta’s seasonal trend of fewer open games and Verona’s struggle to land the first punch.
| Market | Pick | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner (1X2) | Atalanta | 62% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51% |
| BTTS | No | 58% |
What could decide it
- Verona’s first 30 minutes: their strongest attacking window, but with only 15% of matches scored first this season, they need to flip that pattern to unsettle a compact Atalanta.
- Atalanta’s efficiency: 28% conversion is a major edge; they don’t need waves of chances to hurt teams.
- Set‑play and territorial pressure: the visitors’ corner volume suggests longer spells in Verona’s half, increasing the risk of defensive errors from a side averaging 2.69 cards per game.
Scenarios? A Verona win would be a season‑changer, their first in the league and a release valve after a grinding autumn. A draw keeps the chase alive but doesn’t shift the mood. An Atalanta victory would be a measured confirmation of the form lines — and, given the head‑to‑head record, would strengthen the sense that these are two teams heading in different directions as winter bites.