Pisa vs Parma: head to head & Predictions

There is no disguising the stakes for Pisa and Parma. Both sit in the bottom four by the early-season table, separated by a single point, and both have made a habit of playing on the brink without killing games. Pisa’s league record — one win in 13 and a glut of stalemates — tells of a team that competes but struggles to tilt matches its way. Parma, one place above, have scored even fewer goals overall and rarely land the first punch. This has the feel of a six-pointer, even in December.

Pisa’s most recent outing, a 0-2 home defeat to Inter, brought them into the national conversation for the wrong reasons — the local coverage credited Inter’s individuals rather than praise Pisa’s resistance, with Lautaro Martínez and Francesco Pio Esposito stealing headlines as Cristian Chivu “silenced critics” in the away dugout. Strip away the noise and the pattern remains: Pisa don’t concede a flood of chances, but they don’t create enough either. Parma arrive with a different problem: their last five matches have been chaotic and entertaining, but that volatility hasn’t translated into wins.

Season at a glance: low margins, small edges

Across the season, Pisa and Parma mirror each other: light in goals, negative goal differences, and a tendency to live on fine margins. Pisa draw a lot; Parma start slowly. The numbers show why the table has them where it does.

Two figures leap off the page. Pisa’s “scored first” rate (31%) and Parma’s (23%) are both low, which helps to explain the stalemates and late scrambles. Pisa need 117 minutes per league goal on average; Parma need 130. It’s not that either side is especially porous — they concede roughly once per hour — but neither carries consistent threat.

Form lines: recent tempo points to different rhythms

Recent form muddies the water. Pisa have trended tighter in the last five, with fewer high-score games. Parma’s last five have exploded: 80% BTTS and 80% over 2.5, including a 2-2 at Milan and a 2-0 at Udinese. If you trust momentum, Parma’s transitions could stress a Pisa side that doesn’t enjoy games opening up; if you trust season-long habits, this could lock into a midfield trench.

There’s a tactical sub-plot here. Pisa concede a high number of corners (5.46 per game this season) and win comparatively few (3.23); Parma’s corner profile is more balanced (3.23 for, 4.85 against). If this becomes a set-piece battle, Pisa will spend long spells defending their box.

Head-to-head: slim margins, away edge lately

Recent meetings have been decided by a single goal or not at all. Parma shaded the last two league fixtures by one goal; Pisa took the one before that in Parma. Two goalless draws in 2022 underline how easily this fixture can tighten.

Overall head-to-head summaries back that picture: two wins apiece in recent meetings and only a handful of total goals split evenly. Clean sheets have slightly favoured Pisa across that sample, but the gap is narrow.

What the models expect

Despite Parma’s recent fireworks, the model view leans towards a tight, possibly attritional match in which one mistake decides it. Both teams have failed to score in 50% of their last 10 — an unusually high symmetry that points to a long afternoon if the first half drifts.

Scenarios

– If Pisa edge it: It would finally convert their habit of staying in games into something more tangible, easing the pressure of a one-win record and validating a cautious approach built on control and set-piece discipline.

– If Parma take points: A win would confirm the recent uptick in attacking tempo isn’t a quirk and give them breathing room before a demanding December; even a draw keeps the line steady, but another open game without control would raise familiar questions.

– If it drifts to a stalemate: It would be entirely in character. Pisa’s draw-heavy season and both sides’ 50% rate of failing to score in the last 10 would feel less like an accident and more like a habit that needs breaking fast.