Borussia Dortmund welcome 1899 Hoffenheim in a top-end Bundesliga meeting that feels tailor‑made for narrative: the hosts have 25 points from 12 and a strong habit of scoring first, the visitors sit on 23 and carry one of the division’s liveliest attacks. On recent evidence, control meets volatility — and goals feel far more likely than a chess match.
Dortmund’s recent arc has been spiky but productive: a 2–1 win at Bayer Leverkusen preceded this fixture, and their last ten-game trend shows better defensive control than the visitors (0.8 goals conceded per match to 1.3). Hoffenheim arrive dangerous — 13 goals in their last five across competitions and a season shot-conversion clip of 43% — but the numbers also hint at a team that lives with risk (BTTS 75% this season, and only 42% of games scoring first).
Head-to-head: recent balance with a Dortmund tilt
| H2H snapshot (last 10) |  Borussia Dortmund BVB |  1899 Hoffenheim HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Wins in last 10 (%) | 7 (70%) | 1 (10%) |
| Goals in last 10 | 20 | 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 10) | 3 | 0 |
| Date | Competition | Fixture | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2025 | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim vs Dortmund | 2–3 |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Bundesliga | Dortmund vs Hoffenheim | 1–1 |
| 25 Feb 2024 | Bundesliga | Dortmund vs Hoffenheim | 2–3 |
| 01 Nov 2023 | DFB Pokal | Dortmund vs Hoffenheim | 1–0 |
| 29 Sep 2023 | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim vs Dortmund | 0–1 |
The story of the matchup is familiar: Dortmund often find a way, but Hoffenheim have landed a punch or two — notably that 3–2 in February 2024. The fixture tends to breathe rather than suffocate.
Form and attacking patterns (last 10 games)
Dortmund’s last‑ten profile looks steadier at the back, while Hoffenheim’s headline is raw output. The visitors’ volume is real; the question is whether the efficiency travels.
| Last‑10 indicator | Borussia Dortmund BVB | 1899 Hoffenheim HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (avg) | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets (last 10) | 5 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% |
| Corners (avg) | 5.9 | 5.8 |
There’s a first‑half rhythm to watch: Dortmund’s top scoring window this season is 31–45 minutes; Hoffenheim’s is 16–30. If either side starts on the front foot, this could cascade into a wide‑open first half.
Season profile and pressure points
Over the longer arc, the contrasts are stark. Dortmund’s “scored first” rate (83%) speaks to control. Hoffenheim’s BTTS (75%) speaks to jeopardy — they create games rather than manage them.
| Season indicator | Borussia Dortmund BVB | 1899 Hoffenheim HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25 | 23 |
| W–D–L | 7–4–1 | 7–2–3 |
| Goals For–Against | 21–11 | 25–17 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 75% |
| Scored first | 83% | 42% |
If Hoffenheim can blunt Dortmund early — something few teams manage — the visitors’ forward line has the firepower to turn this into a shoot‑out. But if Dortmund dictate the first goal again, the visitors’ 75% BTTS pattern may end up telling the story without changing the outcome.
Set-pieces, discipline and the small edges
Details that often swing these matches: offsides and fouls. Hoffenheim are whistled offside more (23 this season) and commit more fouls (15.08 per game), so Dortmund’s free‑kick and counter platforms could become a theme. Corners are near parity; wide service should be plentiful.
| Detail (season) | Borussia Dortmund BVB | 1899 Hoffenheim HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 54 | 58 |
| Shot conversion | 39% | 43% |
| Offsides against | 17 | 23 |
| Avg corners for | 5.42 | 5.50 |
| Avg cards received | 1.83 | 2.00 |
The model view — and what it means
Numbers are firmly with the hosts. The projection tilts to Dortmund, but it also screams goals.
| Market | Pick | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match winner (1X2) | Borussia Dortmund | 72% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% |
| BTTS | Yes | 90% |
That dovetails with the form lines: Dortmund tend to strike first and manage games; Hoffenheim tend to trade blows. For a fuller numbers read across Sunday’s card, see Kickwie’s Bundesliga betting tips and predictions.
Possible scenarios
- If Dortmund score early again (83% “scored first” this season), their defence’s recent restraint should tilt the script towards a home win and controlled exchanges.
- If Hoffenheim’s fast starts (16–30 minutes top window) land and their shot conversion remains hot, this could become a high‑tempo game where the visitors’ front line drags it into a shoot‑out.
- A draw would not shock: the sides shared a 1–1 last December, and Hoffenheim have shown they can nick margins in this fixture.
Either way, the expectation is clear: momentum swings, goals, and a result that will feed into the title‑race and European spots narrative deep into December.