There is no gentle landing for FC Augsburg’s reset. After parting company with head coach Sandro Wagner following just 12 league fixtures, the club has handed the reins to Manuel Baum until Christmas. His first task is formidable: a visit from a Bayer Leverkusen side that scores at pace and has largely bossed this fixture in recent years.
Augsburg’s season has been volatile — a 1–0 win over Borussia Dortmund at the end of October sits alongside a 0–6 home defeat to RB Leipzig and a 0–3 reverse at Hoffenheim. Leverkusen arrive with 23 points from 12, a 6–0 demolition of Heidenheim in the bank, a 3–0 win at Bayern München earlier in the autumn, but also recent setbacks at Wolfsburg and in Europe. The tone, then: Augsburg seeking structure under interim guidance; Leverkusen trying to restore fluency after a bumpy fortnight.
Where they stand: pace, output and risk
A snapshot of the fundamentals tells its own story — Leverkusen are quicker to goal and concede less frequently, while Augsburg have been too easy to open up.
| Key indicator |  FC Augsburg AUG |  Bayer Leverkusen BAY |
|---|---|---|
| League record (GP–W–D–L) | 12–3–1–8 | 12–7–2–3 |
| Goals For–Against | 15–27 | 28–17 |
| Min per goal (For) | 72 | 38.6 |
| Min per goal (Against) | 40 | 63.5 |
| Scored first (% season) | 50% | 83% |
Attacking profiles: directness vs precision
Leverkusen have moved through the gears quickly this season, especially between minutes 16 and 30, while Augsburg’s most productive moments have skewed towards the end of the first half. The differences in shot quality and decision-making are stark.
| Attacking metric | FC Augsburg AUG | Bayer Leverkusen BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For (season) | 15 | 28 |
| Shots on target (season) | 48 | 60 |
| Shot conversion (season) | 31% | 47% |
| Top minute window (GF) | 31–45 (25%) | 16–30 (24%) |
| Offsides against (season) | 30 | 12 |
Control and discipline
If Augsburg are to slow Leverkusen’s rhythm, Baum will need immediate gains in control — fewer cheap fouls, fewer transitions conceded, and cleaner possession on set plays. Right now, the numbers point in the other direction.
| Control/discipline | FC Augsburg AUG | Bayer Leverkusen BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Avg fouls committed (season) | 12.58 | 9.5 |
| Avg cards received (season) | 3.0 | 2.58 |
| Avg corners against (season) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| BTTS Yes (season) | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals (season) | 75% | 75% |
History of the fixture
There’s no hiding the trend: Leverkusen have taken seven of the last ten Bundesliga meetings, including a 2–0 win in April. Augsburg have sprung the odd surprise — 1–0 in 2023 and 2–1 away in 2022 — but the wider pattern is unforgiving.
| Head-to-head (last 10) | FC Augsburg AUG | Bayer Leverkusen BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (share) | 2 (20%) | 7 (70%) |
| Goals scored | 8 | 21 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Last meeting (Apr 2025) | 0–2 (L) | 2–0 (W) |
| Memorable recent upset | 1–0 (Feb 2023) | 5–1 (Aug 2022) |
What the models say — and where the game tilts
The Kickwie model leans towards Leverkusen, but the stronger indicators are about game state rather than a single outcome: both teams to score and a higher-scoring pattern are rated above average. If Augsburg are to punch above the data, the first half matters — Leverkusen are at their sharpest between minutes 16 and 30, while Augsburg’s better attacking window lands just before half-time.
| Model/edge | FC Augsburg AUG | Bayer Leverkusen BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Match winner (1X2) | — | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals (model) | 60% | 60% |
| BTTS: Yes (model) | 63%</ | 63% |
| Scored first (season) | 50% | 83% |
| Top minute window | 31–45 | 16–30 |
For a fuller slate of angles across the weekend, see Kickwie’s curated Bundesliga betting tips and predictions.
Scenarios
- If Leverkusen win: it steadies their league trajectory after a tough European run and reinforces the sense that their attacking structure — 28 goals already — will carry them through tricky away days.
- If Augsburg take a point (or better): Baum gets an instant bounce, the mood stabilises, and the numbers that have dragged them down — 27 conceded in 12 — begin to feel less deterministic.
- If it becomes a track meet: the model’s 60% for Over 2.5 and 63% BTTS would look prescient; Augsburg’s discipline (3 cards per game) and Leverkusen’s early surge window could decide it.