Two sides with very different rhythms but remarkably similar recent outputs share the pitch this weekend as Hamburger SV host Werder Bremen. Hamburg’s season has been stop-start — three wins from 12 and only 11 league goals — while Bremen have carved out a steadier top-half pace despite leaking goals. If the home side bring the energy they showed in a 4–1 win over Köln but cut out the defensive lapses that make them concede every hour on average, this becomes an even fight. If not, Bremen’s more reliable attacking tempo could tilt it.
| Season snapshot |  Hamburger SV HAM |  Werder Bremen WER |
|---|---|---|
| GP | 12 | 12 |
| Points | 12 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 3–3–6 | 4–4–4 |
| GF–GA | 11–18 | 16–21 |
| Goal every (season) | 98.2 min | 67.5 min |
Form lines and control of games
Hamburg’s last five read as a team still searching for a baseline: wins over Stuttgart and Köln, a draw with Dortmund, and two narrow 1–0 defeats. Bremen, by contrast, have built a more stable run — unbeaten in four of their last five — but their defending remains volatile: 21 conceded in 12 and a goal shipped every 51.4 minutes this season.
The last-10-game averages underline that the gap between these sides is narrower than the table suggests: Hamburg are at 1.1 goals scored per game and 1.6 conceded, while Bremen sit at 1.2 and 1.4 respectively. Even the basics tell a similar story: Hamburg failed to score in 40% of those matches; Bremen in 30%.
| Last 10 key indicators | Hamburger SV HAM | Werder Bremen WER |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (avg) | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Corners (avg) | 3.2 | 4.5 |
Head‑to‑head pulse: tight margins, traded punches
The recent series has been competitive and close. The last meeting listed saw Bremen edge a 3–2 away win (27 Feb 2022), but Hamburg won 2–0 in Bremen earlier that season (18 Sep 2021). The pattern across the past decade of fixtures in the dataset is familiar: narrow wins, the occasional draw, few blowouts.
| Recent H2H snapshot | Hamburger SV HAM | Werder Bremen WER |
|---|---|---|
| Goals in recent H2H | 14 | 11 |
| Wins (recent H2H) | 4 | 4 |
| Clean sheets (recent H2H) | 3 | 3 |
| Win rate in H2H | 40% | 40% |
Attacking timing: both sides finish stronger than they start
Both teams have directed their best attacking moments to the final quarter-hour. Hamburg’s top scoring window in their last five is 76–90 minutes (60% of their goals), and Bremen’s is identical. If this opens cagily, don’t be surprised if it stretches late. Interestingly, their last five attacking numbers are nearly mirror images: equal shots on target and conversion, with Hamburg flagged more often for offsides.
| Shooting & timing (last 5) | Hamburger SV HAM | Werder Bremen WER |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For | 5 | 5 |
| Shots on target | 23 | 23 |
| Shot conversion | 22% | 22% |
| Top minute window | 76–90 (60%) | 76–90 (60%) |
| Offsides against | 14 | 7 |
Discipline and set-piece terrain
Hamburg play the more combative game — more fouls, more cards — while Bremen tend to draw extra corners both for and against. In a match that may hinge on late pressure, the balance of set plays could matter as much as open-play fluency.
| Discipline & set plays (season) | Hamburger SV HAM | Werder Bremen WER |
|---|---|---|
| Avg fouls (committed) | 13.67 | 9.42 |
| Avg cards (received) | 2.83 | 2.75 |
| Avg corners (for) | 3.67 | 4.25 |
| Avg corners (against) | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Offsides against | 31 | 18 |
Model view and what it implies
The model leans slightly toward a home win, nudges toward goals, but intriguingly anticipates that the scoring might be one-sided rather than mutual. That chimes with the eye test: Hamburg have blanked in two of their last five, while Bremen’s defense can lurch from compact to porous without warning.
| Market pick | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match winner: Hamburger SV | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| BTTS: No | 58% |
For a deeper dive into model signals across Germany this weekend, see the latest Bundesliga betting tips and predictions.
The stakes
Hamburg don’t need perfection, they need stability: fewer giveaways, more control of the game’s tempo, and a way to turn their late surges into early platforms. A win would validate signs of life after a choppy autumn and quieten the conversation around a bottom-half fight. Bremen arrive with the more robust trendline but a defense that won’t convince until it strings clean sheets together; three points here would reinforce top-half credentials and set them up for December. A low-scoring stalemate would suit Bremen more than Hamburg, but if this opens up late — as both teams’ profiles suggest — it may be decided by who tidies up their penalty area better, not who dazzles most in the final third.