Bournemouth vs Chelsea head to head & Predictions (06 Dec)

Bournemouth host Chelsea on Saturday afternoon with two very different midweek stories in the rear-view mirror. Bournemouth slipped 0–1 at home to Everton, while Chelsea were jolted by a 3–1 defeat at Leeds that, as the BBC framed it, dented their title push. It was also a night when Daniel Farke was praised for a tactical tweak that unsettled the visitors. The question now is whether Chelsea respond with authority on the south coast, or whether Bournemouth’s stubborn streak in recent weeks forces more uncomfortable debate around the Blues’ consistency.

Head‑to‑head: tight games, Chelsea edge

The recent Premier League history of this fixture leans blue, but the margins have rarely been large. The head‑to‑head summary shows Chelsea with 5 wins (56%) to Bournemouth’s 1 (11%), and the last five league meetings include two draws and three narrow Chelsea victories. That pattern makes a one‑goal game a realistic script again.

Form guide: same volatility, different ceilings

Across the last 10 matches, Bournemouth’s run has been streaky but competitive, while Chelsea’s ceiling has looked higher — and their lows more jarring. Bournemouth’s 0–1 against Everton followed a lively stretch featuring a 3–2 at Sunderland and 2–2 with West Ham; Chelsea’s last five across competitions include a strong 2–0 at Burnley, a 1–1 with Arsenal, but also heavy defeats to Wolves and Barcelona before that setback at Elland Road.

There’s a clear stylistic thread too: both teams’ league games have produced goals, with Over 2.5 recorded in 64% of their fixtures this season (sample: 14 each). Bournemouth’s last five underline a more chaotic tilt: Over 2.5 at 80% and a low “scored first” rate (20%). Chelsea look better front‑runners right now — they scored first in 80% of their last five.

Season snapshot: where they stand

The table tells you Chelsea arrive with a platform, Bournemouth with a puncher’s chance. Chelsea sit on 24 points with a positive goal difference, while Bournemouth’s 19 points reflect a team that can play — but concedes often enough to live on fine margins.

Where the goals come from

Bournemouth are late‑surge specialists this season: their most productive window is minutes 76–90, where a third of their goals arrive. Chelsea, by contrast, switch on just after the break, peaking between 46–60. On pure efficiency, Chelsea are the cleaner finishers overall — and their last‑five shot conversion (40%) dwarfs Bournemouth’s (19%). If Bournemouth are to tilt this, slowing the game down after half‑time and keeping the contest alive for that late window looks essential.

Market view and match scenarios

Model numbers lean modestly towards the visitors, but expect resistance: both teams to score is rated highly and there’s only a small nudge towards a Chelsea win. For more league context, our take on wider angles sits alongside the latest premier league betting tips.

Scenarios: a Chelsea win would feel like a necessary reset after Leeds — reinforcing the impression that they can absorb a bad night and still stay on track near the top end. A draw with goals would echo the recent head‑to‑head and keep Bournemouth ticking over in mid‑table, while another home upset would sharpen questions about Chelsea’s volatility and elevate Bournemouth’s sense that their late‑game punch can unsettle bigger sides.