Manchester City vs Sunderland head to head & Predictions (06 Dec)

The schedule says routine, but the numbers hint at jeopardy. Manchester City host Sunderland on Saturday in the Premier League with model projections firmly on the champions’ side, yet the visitors arrive buoyed by a point at Anfield and a manager in Regis Le Bris who has made “very aggressive” pressing part of their identity, as Arne Slot noted after Liverpool’s 1-1 draw.

State of play: heavy favourites, awkward timing

City’s league baseline remains strong — 28 points from 14 matches (W9 D1 L4), with 32 scored and 16 conceded — and they have just put five past Fulham and three past Leeds. The model sees this as close to a formality: the match-winner probability sits at 91% for City, with a goals-friendly profile (Over 2.5 at 63%) and a high-scoring feel for both ends (BTTS: Yes at 72%).

Sunderland’s season to date (23 points from 14; W6 D5 L3; 18 for, 14 against) speaks to resilience more than fireworks. They’ve taken a draw at Anfield — via a late deflection off Nordi Mukiele from a Florian Wirtz strike — and edged Fulham away, but also slipped 3-2 at Bournemouth. With Real Madrid on City’s midweek horizon, the contest’s timing is not ideal for the hosts.

Form guide and recent trends

Across the last 10 fixtures, City’s pattern reads like a contender rebooting: “WWLWWLWWWD”, fuelled by 2.4 goals scored on average and 1.2 conceded. Sunderland’s “DWLDDWWLWD” points to competitive, low-margin games: 1.3 scored on average and 1.1 conceded, an indicator of control in their own box even when the scoreboard is tight.

Recent scorelines add flavour: City crushed Liverpool 3-0 and won thrillers against Leeds (3-2) and Fulham (5-4), but stumbled against Bayer Leverkusen (0-2) and at Newcastle (1-2). Sunderland’s last five include that 1-1 at Anfield, a 1-0 win at Fulham and a narrow 3-2 loss at Bournemouth.

Head-to-head: history tilts Blue

The head-to-head balance is one-sided. Over the last 10 meetings, City have eight wins (80%), 25 goals scored and two clean sheets; Sunderland have a solitary win (10%) and one clean sheet. The recent ledger includes multiple two-goal margins for City, and a spate of high-scoring games at both venues.

Key numbers and tactical angles

City’s league profile says tempo and territory: they average 5.79 corners for and 1.86 cards received, scoring every 39.4 minutes on average. Sunderland are steadier, with 3.5 corners for, 2.07 cards and a goal roughly every 70 minutes, but they’ve been decisive late — their top scoring window this season is 76–90 minutes (33%). City’s most productive spell is before the break (31–45 minutes, 24%).

Le Bris’s side have also pushed up the BTTS rate in their recent sample (80% over the last five), which dovetails with the model’s 72% BTTS call here. For City, the immediate question is rhythm: across their last five, the Over 2.5 hit 80%, and they’ve recently shipped four and two in quick succession. If Sunderland’s press forces early turnovers, this could turn into a more open afternoon than the league table implies.

What it means: plausible scenarios

A home win would stabilise City’s league trajectory and quieten the noise after that 0-2 against Bayer Leverkusen, with Madrid looming next. A chaotic draw or a shock away win would amplify the sense that Sunderland’s structure and edge under Regis Le Bris translate against elite opponents, especially after their Anfield point. For a wider view of the weekend slate, see our premier league betting tips — but here the burden is clearly on the champions to be professional and precise.