The Premier League window before the festive rush brings Chelsea and Everton together in London on 13 December, and the numbers point to a contest with edges on both sides. Chelsea’s last 10 matches read like a stress test — clean sheets punctuated by heavy defeats and a goalless home draw — while Everton arrive with a results sheet that swings from a 3–0 win to narrow, disciplined away efforts. There’s no comfort blanket here: both teams have clear strengths and very visible flaws.
Form lines and momentum check
Chelsea’s last 10 run (DLDWWWLWWL) has more peaks and troughs than they would like, yet it sits on decent attacking output: 1.5 goals scored on average and only 10% of those games ending without a goal from them. Everton’s last 10 (WWLWWDLLWD) is tidier in terms of control — they concede at the same rate as Chelsea over that span (1.2) — but they’ve failed to score in twice as many of those fixtures (20%). Clean sheets are close (Chelsea 5, Everton 4), which hints at long spells of stalemate if the first goal drags.
| Metric (last 10) |  Chelsea CHE |  Everton EVE |
|---|---|---|
| Form string | DLDWWWLWWL | WWLWWDLLWD |
| Goals scored (avg) | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 |
Recent results offer both encouragement and caution. Chelsea’s last five include a 3–1 win at Leeds and a 1–1 draw with Arsenal, but also a 0–0 at home to Bournemouth and a 0–3 defeat to Barcelona. Everton’s last five show a convincing 3–0 against Nottingham Forest and a 4–1 at Newcastle, balanced by single-goal losses to Bournemouth and Manchester United. In short: Chelsea create and share goals but drift, Everton compress games and pounce when the moment is right.
Head-to-head: fresh memories and old scars
The recent head-to-head picture is contradictory: a six-goal Chelsea dismantling sits alongside stalemates and an Everton home win. The summary tilts towards London by narrow margins, yet it’s not a fixture that dies early; late swings have featured regularly in both clubs’ broader form guides.
| Head-to-head category | Chelsea CHE | Everton EVE |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 13 | 7 |
| Wins | 4 (40%) | 3 (30%) |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 |
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2025 | Chelsea | 1–0 | Everton |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Everton | 0–0 | Chelsea |
| 15 Apr 2024 | Chelsea | 6–0 | Everton |
| 10 Dec 2023 | Everton | 2–0 | Chelsea |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Chelsea | 2–2 | Everton |
That spread of outcomes underscores a familiar tension: when Chelsea keep their structure, they overwhelm; when they let the game breathe, Everton are adept at turning it into a knife fight.
Where the game can swing: the numbers behind the styles
Attacking profiles from the last five matches strengthen that thesis. Chelsea have produced more shots on target in that small sample, but Everton’s shot conversion is higher and their “top minute window” is late — a sign of patient game states and decisive end phases. Chelsea’s tendency to step on the gas just after half-time (46–60) contrasts with Everton’s late flurry (76–90).
| Attacking metric (last 5) | Chelsea CHE | Everton EVE |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For (GF) | 6 | 8 |
| Shots on Target | 21 | 16 |
| Offsides (against) | 10 | 11 |
| Shot Conversion | 29% | 50% |
| Top Minute Window | 46–60 (50%) | 76–90 (38%) |
There is also the broader season picture to note on Everton’s side: 24 points from 15 league matches (7 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats) with 18 goals scored and 17 conceded suggest a low-margin team that understands tight contests. That meshes with their last five trend of scoring first in a high proportion of games while keeping the chance count controlled.
Market temperature and what another result would mean
Model projections lean slightly towards the hosts and, more notably, towards goals at both ends. That sounds right for a match-up where Chelsea’s middle-third control can be undercut by their own volatility, and Everton’s discipline often keeps them in reach deep into the second half.
| Market | Pick | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner (1X2) | Chelsea | 58% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | OVER 2.5 | 51% |
| BTTS | BTTS: YES | 72% |
For Chelsea, a win would nudge the conversation back towards consistency after a stop-start fortnight; another flat home performance would make the 0–0 against Bournemouth feel less like an off-day and more like a trend. For Everton, taking something on the road after recent narrow away defeats would validate their compact approach ahead of a demanding December. For a broader view of the round, Kickwie’s curated slate of premier league betting tips sets the context for where the market is moving.