Fiorentina return to Serie A duty under acute pressure. Reports this week labelled the club “rock bottom” and described “chaos” around January planning, with links to Brighton’s Diego Coppola for a defensive reset and talk that Albert Gudmundsson could be a high-profile departure. The league table is unforgiving: winless after 15 matches. Udinese arrive steadier and more pragmatic, with a platform of points and a recent uptick against strong opposition.
What’s at stake in Florence
Domestic reality frames this fixture starkly. Fiorentina’s Serie A line reads W0-D6-L9, 12:26 in goals and only 6 points from 15 games. Udinese, by contrast, are on 21 points (W6-D3-L6, 16:22). The visitors have been better at the basics: tighter in both boxes and less volatile week to week. Fiorentina’s recent run hints at flickers of recovery — a 3–1 win over Sassuolo and a European victory over Dynamo Kyiv — but it’s been quickly undercut by lapses such as the 1–2 home defeat to Verona and a 2–0 reverse at Atalanta.
| Team | GP | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 15 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 6 |
| Udinese | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 21 |
Under the surface, some numbers tell the story. Fiorentina have 41 shots on target and a 29% conversion rate this season, but that hasn’t translated into wins; Udinese’s 60 shots on target and a 27% conversion underpin a sturdier points return. Discipline and set-piece detail also matter here: Fiorentina average 2.47 cards per game (season), way above Udinese’s 1.87, and both teams average 4.67 corners.
Head-to-head: small margins, familiar scars
Across the recent head-to-head series, the balance is tight. Both sides have scored 12 goals, Fiorentina hold five wins (50%) to Udinese’s four (40%), and clean sheets shade 4–3 in Fiorentina’s favour. The last four league meetings have swung back and forth — a pattern that feeds the sense of jeopardy for a home side that cannot afford another flat afternoon.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May 2025 | Udinese | 2–3 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 23 Dec 2024 | Fiorentina | 1–2 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Fiorentina | 2–2 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 24 Sep 2023 | Udinese | 0–2 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
Those results dovetail with Udinese’s current resilience: away wins at Parma (0–2) and Bologna (0–3), mixed with setbacks at Juventus (2–0) and versus Genoa (1–2), then a clean 1–0 over Napoli. Fiorentina’s head-to-head edge is real, but the present-tense evidence says they must reduce errors and find a steadier tempo early — their best scoring window this season has come in the opening quarter-hour.
Form and tendencies
Over the last 10 matches, Fiorentina’s sequence (LLLDDLLDLL) is the picture of a team stuck in negative cycles: too many cheap concessions, not enough control. Udinese’s WLWLLWLWDD is choppier than their table suggests but includes clear away competence and better game management. Discipline may swing the marginal calls: Fiorentina are more card-prone, while Udinese keep things neater and concede fewer unnecessary set-plays.
| Last-10 metric | Fiorentina | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Form | LLLDDLLDLL | WLWLLWLWDD |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% |
| Corners (avg) | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Yellow cards (avg) | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Red cards (avg) | 0.1 | 0 |
Season profiles back that up. Fiorentina’s matches are often eventful — 67% BTTS and 60% Over 2.5 — but they score first in only 33% of league games. Udinese’s spread is calmer (53% BTTS, 47% Over 2.5) and they hit the front more often (40%).
| Season metric |  Fiorentina FIO |  Udinese UDI |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (Yes %) | 67% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 (%) | 60% | 47% |
| Scored first (%) | 33% | 40% |
| Avg corners (for) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| Avg cards (received) | 2.47 | 1.87 |
Model view: tight scoreline, nervy afternoon
Kickwie’s model leans marginally towards the hosts but sketches a cagey match state: Fiorentina as match-winner carries a 44% probability; Under 2.5 goals is a 55% play, while BTTS Yes is 56%. That combination points to a low-scoring draw as a live possibility — the classic one-goal game where a single mistake decides the tone of the week in Florence.
| Market | Pick | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner (1X2) | Fiorentina | 44% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55% |
| BTTS | BTTS: YES | 56% |
For broader European context, Kickwie’s coverage also extends to Spain — a useful cross-check if you follow trends across leagues — see their serie a picks.
What it could mean
A home win would not fix Fiorentina’s season, but it would lift the mood and give weight to the idea that a January reset can still matter. A draw, in these circumstances, would be received without enthusiasm but would at least stop the bleeding. Another home defeat would turn the noise up further around the project: the numbers already show a team chasing games, conceding too often, and struggling to set the rhythm. For Udinese, any result on the road that keeps the points ticking — even a narrow draw — would reinforce their mid-table composure and keep them trending in the right direction.