Arsenal vs Brighton: head to head & Predictions (27-12-25)

Arsenal host Brighton in the Premier League on 27 December (15:00 GMT), a meeting that has swung between control and chaos in recent seasons – and rarely without a storyline. The most immediate one is freshness: Arsenal arrive off a punishing run of fixtures across competitions, while Brighton’s league form has been steady enough to keep them in the conversation at this stage of the campaign.

The numbers from the last 10 matches suggest a game of contrasts: Arsenal’s overall output has been sharper (1.7 goals scored on average, 0.7 conceded), while Brighton’s matches have tended to be more open at both ends (1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded). That sets up a familiar question at the Emirates: can Brighton land punches without leaving their chin exposed?

Head-to-head: recent scars, recent control

The broader head-to-head summary paints a relatively even rivalry, but with Arsenal holding the edge: 4 wins (40%) to Brighton’s 3 (30%), with Arsenal also ahead on total goals (15 to 12) and clean sheets (4 to 2). It is not domination, but it is a pattern of Arsenal finding ways to manage Brighton more often than not.

Arsenal ARS	Brighton BRI	Category
4 (40%)	3 (30%)	Head-to-head wins
15	12	Head-to-head goals
4	2	Head-to-head clean sheets

Still, the recent results list underlines why Arsenal will not treat this as routine. Brighton have won 3-0 at Arsenal (Premier League, 17 Dec 2023) and 3-1 (Premier League, 31 Dec 2022), while Arsenal have also delivered emphatic away wins, including 3-0 at Brighton (Premier League, 06 Apr 2024).

Arsenal’s current shape: late goals, tight margins, and a reliance on control

The data available for Arsenal’s “season” sample is limited (sample: 3 fixtures), but it still hints at a team that starts fast and finishes hard: “scored first” sits at 100%, and their top scoring window is 76–90 (50%). That late-game edge matters against a Brighton side whose own most productive window is also 76–90 (46%) across 17 league fixtures.

There is also a telling defensive marker: Arsenal’s “Min/Goal (Against)” is listed at 270 minutes in that sample, suggesting that when their structure holds, opponents can go long stretches without being rewarded. But Arsenal have not been immune to wobble when games open up – their last-five profile (sample: 5 fixtures) shows BTTS at 60% and Over 2.5 at 60%.

The wider last-five results list reinforces a team living on fine details: Arsenal beat Everton 1-0 on 20 December and Crystal Palace 1-0 on 23 December, but were also beaten 3-0 by Club Brugge KV on 10 December. That inconsistency in the scoreboard is exactly why this Brighton match matters: Arsenal’s ceiling is high, but their floor can still drop out.

Brighton’s season: ninth place, decent outputs, and a worrying habit of conceding

Brighton come into the match ninth in the Premier League, with 24 points from 17 games (W6 D6 L5, F25 A23, GD2). That’s not elite form, but it is competitive – and it’s built on being hard to beat more often than they are easy to play through.

The catch is how often Brighton leave the door open. Across 17 league fixtures, BTTS is listed at 65% and Over 2.5 at 53%, with “Min/Goal (Against)” at 66.5 minutes. Those aren’t the figures of a side that suffocates opponents; they’re the figures of a team that tends to trade.

Their recent results have been mixed. Brighton drew 1-1 with West Ham on 7 December and beat Liverpool 2-0 on 13 December, but were heavily beaten 4-3 by Aston Villa on 3 December and lost 2-0 at Nottingham Forest on 30 November. That Villa game is the warning: Brighton can score, but if the midfield spacing collapses, games can spiral quickly.

Where this game could turn: late surges, set-piece pressure, and discipline

Both sides have a clear late-match signature. Arsenal’s top minute window is 76–90 (50%) in the sample provided; Brighton’s is 76–90 (46%) across the season and 76–90 (50%) across their last five. That overlap points to a match that could feel “done” and then suddenly change in the final quarter.

Discipline also leans one way. Over the last 10 matches, Arsenal average 1.3 yellow cards and 0 red cards; Brighton average 1.5 yellows and 0 reds. Brighton’s season profile is sharper again, with “Avg cards (received)” at 2.41 across 17 fixtures. Against an Arsenal side that concedes just 0.7 goals on average across the last 10, giving away cheap set-piece chances and losing composure in transitions is an avoidable way to lose a game.

For those tracking the broader weekend narrative, the modelled market view in the same dataset tilts strongly Arsenal (81% match winner probability), with BTTS “Yes” at 70% and Over 2.5 at 58%. That doesn’t guarantee entertainment, but it does underline the expectation of goals at both ends – a theme that fits Brighton’s league season profile. If you’re browsing contextual premier league tips around the festive schedule, this is the kind of fixture that tends to warp game-state assumptions late on.

What a result would mean

An Arsenal win would look like the logical continuation of their defensive control in the last-10 snapshot (0.7 conceded on average) and their recent habit of getting over the line in tight games, like the 1-0 wins over Everton and Crystal Palace. But if Arsenal start slowly, or if Brighton can keep the ball and avoid the cards-and-corners trap, the away side have shown they can land a statement punch in this fixture – and they won’t need permission to make it uncomfortable.

For Brighton, a point would reinforce the credibility of their ninth-place platform (24 points from 17 games), especially with a busy run ahead. A loss, particularly one shaped by discipline or late-game lapses, would sharpen the suspicion that they are still too easy to drag into the kind of shootout they can’t consistently win.