West Ham vs Fulham: head to head & Predictions (27-12-25)

West Ham host Fulham in the Premier League on 27 December (15:00 GMT), a fixture that looks deceptively mid-table on paper but carries very different types of pressure. West Ham arrive with the blunt reality of 13 points from 17 games and a goal difference of -16, while Fulham sit 13th on 23 points, close enough to the noise of inconsistency but far enough from West Ham’s kind of emergency to play with a little more freedom.

And yet, this is not a rivalry that behaves predictably. The recent head-to-head includes a Fulham 5-0 West Ham and a West Ham 3-2 Fulham, plus a 1-1 draw as recently as September 2024. Volatility is baked in.

Where West Ham are: goals late, problems early

The numbers point to a side that spends too much time chasing. West Ham’s “scored first” rate this season is 24%, and the “first team to score” metric is listed as 18/20. Those two figures together paint an awkward picture: they’re regularly conceding the opener and turning matches into damage limitation.

The attack, when it comes, is often late. West Ham’s top scoring minute window this season is 76-90 (42%), which suggests their threat builds as games stretch — but that can also be a symptom of being forced into risk. It’s no coincidence their last five league games include a 3-0 defeat at Manchester City and a 2-0 home loss to Liverpool, with goals conceded arriving at an average rate of one every 43.7 minutes across the season.

Fulham’s mood shift: Silva’s “massive” three points, and a sharper edge

Marco Silva called it “massive” — and it’s hard to argue. Fulham’s 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest (sealed by a first-half penalty from Raul Jimenez) was framed by the BBC as getting their season “back on track”. Given their broader league profile — 7 wins and 8 defeats from 17 — those stop-the-bleeding results matter.

What stands out is how quickly Fulham’s attack can catch fire. Over their last five matches, their “Over 2.5” rate is 80% and BTTS is 80%, with 10 goals scored in that five-game sample. That doesn’t make them a guaranteed thrill-ride, but it does suggest West Ham’s habit of conceding first could be playing with matches.

The head-to-head: same goals, different stories

The headline head-to-head summary shows a neat quirk: both sides have 13 goals across the sample in question, yet West Ham have 5 wins (50%) to Fulham’s 2 (20%). It’s a reminder that this matchup has often hinged on fine margins — and, occasionally, a complete swing of momentum.

Recent meetings underline the extremes. Fulham’s 5-0 win in April 2024 is the kind of result that lingers, but West Ham’s 3-2 away win in January 2025 is a rebuttal: they can hurt Fulham, even when the matchup seems to favour the home side.

West Ham WES	H2H summary	Fulham FUL
13	Goals	13
5 (50%)	Wins	2 (20%)
3	Clean sheets	3

Read:  Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: head to head & Predictions (27-12-25)

What the data hints at: goals at both ends, and a big midfield test

Across the last-10 form snapshot, Fulham have the better attacking output (1.6 average goals scored vs 1.3) and a slightly better defensive record (1.5 conceded vs 1.9). West Ham also fail to score in 30% of those last-10 matches, compared to Fulham’s 20% — which is not the profile of a team you trust to control games.

Discipline and set-piece pressure could also shape the afternoon. West Ham average 5 corners per game in the last-10 snapshot (and 5.24 “corners for” across the season), while Fulham’s seasonal “corners for” is 4.88. If the match becomes territorial rather than technical, West Ham may be nudged towards the kind of late push their scoring window suggests they rely on.

If you’re scanning the wider weekend conversation for premier league predictions, this game fits the pattern of two teams whose numbers lean towards openness: the model list gives BTTS “Yes” a 56% probability and Over 2.5 goals 52%.

Scenarios that decide it

If West Ham start slowly again — as their 24% “scored first” rate suggests they often do — the match could tilt quickly towards Fulham’s more efficient attack (39% shot conversion across the season, rising to 56% in their last five). That is exactly the kind of detail that turns a tough afternoon into a long one.

But if West Ham can keep it level into the final quarter, their tendency to score in the 76-90 window offers a route back into the game, particularly if Fulham’s recent high-scoring run comes with the usual trade-off of exposure. A West Ham win would not magically fix 18th place, but it would at least disrupt the sense of inevitability around their season; a Fulham away result would reinforce Silva’s message that the Forest win was a platform rather than a one-off.