Crystal Palace welcome Tottenham in the Premier League on 28 December, with the numbers pointing to a familiar Spurs story: plenty of intent, plenty of noise, and not enough control. Tottenham come into this one sitting 14th with 22 points from 17 games, and the mood around them has been sharpened by criticism of their discipline after the 1–2 defeat to Liverpool.
Palace, by contrast, look like a team comfortable living on fine margins. Their last-10 profile shows 1.2 goals scored (avg) and 1.4 conceded (avg) with 4 clean sheets, and a 30% “failed to score” rate that hints at how quickly their games can go quiet. Yet in this fixture, they have recent evidence that a compact, ruthless performance can be enough: they beat Spurs 2–0 away on 11 May 2025.
Head-to-head: Tottenham have the edge, but Palace have the freshest scar
The broader head-to-head summary leans Tottenham: 6 wins (60%) to Palace’s 3 (30%), and Spurs have scored 18 goals to Palace’s 10 across that sample. The twist is that two of the most recent meetings have gone Palace’s way, including that 2–0 win in May 2025 and a 1–0 victory at Selhurst Park in October 2024.
| Head-to-head metric | Crystal Palace | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 (30%) | 6 (60%) |
| Goals | 10 | 18 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
History says Spurs often find a way in this matchup; recent evidence says Palace know exactly how to make Spurs uncomfortable when the game turns scrappy and low-scoring.
Form guide: Palace’s tight games vs Spurs’ volatility
Neither side arrives with a clean narrative of momentum. Crystal Palace have a last-10 form string that swings between wins and losses, and their underlying profile is modest: 1.2 goals scored (avg), 1.4 conceded (avg), 4.1 corners (avg), and 1.3 yellow cards (avg). Their 0 red cards (avg) matters in a game that could easily become emotional.
Tottenham, meanwhile, concede more than Palace across the last-10 snapshot: 1.8 goals conceded (avg) with only 2 clean sheets. They also run hotter in the disciplinary column, posting 3.1 yellow cards (avg) and 0.2 red cards (avg) over that same span.
| Last-10 metric | Crystal Palace | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Form (sequence) | LLWWLWDWLD | LLWDLLDLWL |
| Goals scored (avg) | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets (avg) | 4 | 2 |
| Yellow cards (avg) | 1.3 | 3.1 |
Tottenham’s discipline problem is no longer a side story
The week’s headlines have landed heavily on Tottenham’s behaviour and decision-making. Arne Slot described Micky van de Ven’s tackle on Alexander Isak as “reckless”, saying the striker could be out for “a couple of months”. And on Match of the Day analysis, Joe Hart argued Spurs “lost control” in their defeat to Liverpool, framing ill-discipline as a direct reason for the result.
This matters against Palace because their profile suggests they are comfortable in games where rhythm gets broken. If Spurs bring the same emotional temperature — and the same propensity to rack up cards — they risk turning 90 minutes into a series of stoppages, duels and set-piece moments where Palace’s patience becomes a weapon.
| Discipline snapshot | Crystal Palace | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Yellow cards (avg, last 10) | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| Red cards (avg, last 10) | 0 | 0.2 |
| Avg cards received (season) | 1 | 2.82 |
| Avg cards received (last 5) | 1.6 | 3.6 |
Where the goals might come from: early Palace threat, late Spurs surges
The team data points to different “danger windows”. Crystal Palace’s top minute window this season is 31–45 (33%), while their last five games show 0–15 (33%) — a hint that Palace can start fast or finish first halves strongly when they’re on it.
Tottenham skew later. Their top minute window this season is 76–90 (28%), and in the last five matches it jumps to 76–90 (50%). Spurs have also produced 26 league goals from 56 shots on target, with a 46% shot conversion in the season sample — a figure that suggests they can turn pressure into goals quickly when the game opens up.
| Attacking indicators | Crystal Palace | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Top minute window (season) | 31-45 (33%) | 76-90 (28%) |
| Top minute window (last 5) | 0-15 (33%) | 76-90 (50%) |
| Goals For (season) | 5 | 26 |
| Shots on target (season) | 16 | 56 |
| Shot conversion (season) | 31% | 46% |
One note of caution: the available data for Palace’s “season” attacking numbers is based on a small sample (“Sample: 3 fixtures”), so any conclusions about their output need to be made carefully. Spurs’ season profile is drawn from 17 fixtures, and reads as more stable.
What the data suggests, and what it would mean
The model snapshot included here makes this look more competitive than Spurs’ historical edge might imply: Crystal Palace are given a 41% probability in the match-winner (1X2) market, while the game trends lean to BTTS: YES (56%) and UNDER 2.5 (53%) — a slightly awkward combination that fits Palace’s habit of narrow games and Tottenham’s tendency to concede.
If you’re cross-referencing weekend narratives with broader league reading, it’s the kind of fixture that will show up in round-ups of premier league predictions precisely because Tottenham’s matches can swing on one moment of ill-discipline or one late spell of finishing.
| Market | Pick | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner (1X2) | Crystal Palace | 41% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | UNDER 2.5 | 53% |
| BTTS | BTTS: YES | 56% |
Scenario-wise, a Palace win would underline how effectively they can turn games into tests of patience — and how Spurs still struggle when the match becomes more about control than talent. A Tottenham win, particularly if it comes with composure rather than chaos, would quieten the “lost control” narrative around them; another card-heavy, frantic afternoon would only deepen the sense that their biggest opponent is their own temperament.