Brentford host Bournemouth on Saturday, 27 December (15:00 GMT) in a meeting between two sides separated by a single point after 17 Premier League games. Brentford sit 12th with 23 points; Bournemouth are 15th with 22. The table says “mid-table”, but the underlying trends hint at something more tense: Brentford have cooled sharply over their last five, while Bournemouth carry the air of a team that can play well and still fail to control a match.
There’s also a familiar feel to this fixture. Brentford have dominated the head-to-head, winning 7 of the meetings in this data set (70%), and their recent record against Bournemouth is even more pointed: five of the last seven listed games ended with Brentford victories, including a 2-0 League Cup win at Bournemouth in August.
Where the game sits: a one-point gap, but different kinds of pressure
Brentford’s league season so far is defined by small margins: 24 scored, 25 conceded and a goal difference of -1 across 17 fixtures. Bournemouth’s numbers are less clear in the standings snapshot (F/A listed as 0/0 there), but their season profile elsewhere is that of a side willing to trade punches: 26 goals scored, and an “Over 2.5” rate of 59%.
 Brentford BRE |  Bournemouth BOU | Metric |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | 15th | League position |
| 23 | 22 | Points |
| 17 | 17 | Games played |
| 24-25 (GD -1) | F0/A0 (GD 0) | Standing snapshot (F-A) |
| W7 D2 L8 | W5 D7 L5 | Record |
Both sides sit on identical “BTTS (Yes %)” for the season at 59%, but they arrive there by different routes. Brentford’s “scored first (%)” sits at 65%, suggesting they often land the first punch; Bournemouth’s is 47%, which fits the more volatile recent results pattern and the sense they can be dragged into the wrong sort of game.
Recent form: Brentford’s dip meets Bournemouth’s chaotic edge
The last-10 form strings are messy for both, yet the tone differs. Brentford’s “WDLLWLWLWW” includes two wins at the end, but their last five in the detailed list are more sobering: a 2-0 loss at Wolves, then a 2-0 win over Manchester City, followed by 1-1 with Leeds, and back-to-back 2-0 defeats to Tottenham and Arsenal. That’s a team capable of a big day, but too often ending up on the wrong side of the finer details.
Bournemouth’s last five are even harder to pin down: they drew 1-1 with Burnley, then produced a startling 4-4 at Manchester United, before a 0-0 with Chelsea, a 1-0 loss to Everton and a 3-2 win at Sunderland. You can call that resilience. You can also call it a lack of control—especially when they concede as regularly as their “min/goal against” number (52.8 minutes) suggests over the season.
| Team | Last 10 form (sequence) | Goals scored (avg) | Goals conceded (avg) | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | WDLLWLWLWW | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | DDDLLDLLWD | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2 |
There’s one blunt takeaway from those last-10 averages: Brentford concede less (1.3) than Bournemouth (2.1). If this match becomes a game of managing phases rather than trading chances, the numbers imply Brentford have been the more credible defensive unit.
Head-to-head: Brentford have owned the narrative
The long-view head-to-head summary is as lopsided as you’ll see between two Premier League sides: Brentford 7 wins (70%) to Bournemouth 1 (10%), with Brentford also ahead on goals (17 to 8). The more recent list backs it up: Brentford won 2-0 at Bournemouth in the League Cup in August 2025, and they beat Bournemouth 2-1 away in the league in March 2025.
Brentford BRE | Bournemouth BOU | Head-to-head summary |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 8 | Goals |
| 7 (70%) | 1 (10%) | Wins |
| 4 | 2 | Clean sheets |
Even the “high-scoring” meetings have tended to end Brentford’s way: 3-2 at Brentford in November 2024, 2-2 in September 2023, and a 3-1 Brentford win back in October 2022. Bournemouth’s problem isn’t that they never compete in these games; it’s that they don’t finish them better than Brentford do.
Key themes: late goals, early bursts, and discipline
Both teams’ attacking profiles point to decisive moments rather than constant pressure. Brentford’s “top minute window” for goals this season is 76-90 (42%), which suggests a side that stays alive late — useful, but it can also hint at a team that leaves itself too much to do. Bournemouth’s top window is also late (76-90 at 31%), but their last-five window shifts to 0-15 (29%), a sign they can start quickly and still end up conceding control later.
| Team | Top minute window (season) | Top minute window (last 5) | Min/Goal (For) | Min/Goal (Against) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 76-90 (42%) | 61-75 (67%) | 63.8 min | 61.2 min |
| Bournemouth | 76-90 (31%) | 0-15 (29%) | 58.8 min | 52.8 min |
Discipline and game management may matter too. Bournemouth’s last-10 average is 2.6 yellow cards and 0.1 red cards; Brentford’s is 1.8 and 0.0. Over the season, Bournemouth average 12.82 fouls committed and 2.53 cards received, compared to Brentford’s 11.53 fouls and 2 cards received. If Bournemouth make this frantic, the numbers suggest they’re the more likely to pay a price.
Bournemouth’s off-pitch noise: Semenyo speculation hangs over the trip
The build-up is coloured by transfer talk around Antoine Semenyo. BBC Sport report that Manchester City are in advanced talks over a January move, describing the forward as “always hungry, always brave”. That may flatter the player, but it also makes this a live-wire week for Bournemouth: the kind where a club either rallies around its key figures or gets distracted by what comes next.
For those tracking wider weekend context and form guides, you’ll find plenty of noise around premier league betting tips — but this match feels less like a pure numbers game and more like a test of who stays composed when the pattern shifts.
How it could play out: control vs chaos
If Brentford can turn their season trend of scoring first (65%) into another fast start, their head-to-head dominance gives them a platform to play a colder, more controlled match — especially given Bournemouth’s last-10 concession rate (2.1 average conceded). But if Bournemouth land one of their early bursts and force Brentford into chase mode, the game could loosen into the kind of open contest that has already produced a 4-4 for them at Manchester United and a steady stream of “Over 2.5” matches (59% this season).
A Brentford win would reinforce the idea that their best level still appears in big moments — even if their last five have been patchy. A Bournemouth result, especially if driven by the kind of assertive performance Andoni Iraola wanted after calling Burnley’s late equaliser a “big punishment”, would be a statement that the team can handle both the match and the background noise around Semenyo. Another slip, and the season risks becoming a weekly exercise in explaining why they looked dangerous without actually being secure.