Brentford vs Burnley: Head to Head & Predictions (29 Nov)

The Premier League returns to Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday as Brentford host Burnley (15:00 GMT). It is a meeting that, on paper, looks like a chance for Brentford to consolidate a mid-table foothold while Burnley try to halt a slide that the national press has flagged — the BBC’s recent Gameweek preview even singled out “struggling sides such as … Burnley” as fixtures Fantasy managers can target.

Quick snapshot

This season’s baseline numbers tell a blunt story. Brentford have played 12, accumulated 16 points and scored 18 goals but also conceded 19. Burnley, by contrast, have just 10 points from 12 matches and a worrying -10 goal difference after conceding 24. On the market model in the data Brentford are clear favourites (63% probability) and the game is marginally expected to produce goals — Over 2.5 sits at 53% and BTTS at 56%.

How both teams are scoring (and conceding)

There are subtler contrasts in the attack patterns. Brentford convert a higher share of their chances late in matches — their top minute window is 76–90 (35% this season) — while Burnley’s danger appears earlier, with a top window of 16–30 (24%). Burnley’s shot conversion is recorded as 38% against Brentford’s 34%, but the bigger issue for Burnley is frequency: they take fewer shots on target overall and need more minutes per goal.

Form, patterns and in-game indicators

Brentford’s season has been inconsistent — win and loss are frequent — but they do show attacking heft: BTTS (Yes) is 67% on the season and Over 2.5 sits at 67% in recent samples. Burnley’s profile is more problematic: they are scoring less often (min/goal 77.1) and concede faster on average (min/goal against 45). Those figures explain why Burnley are being flagged as vulnerable by pundits and FPL coverage.

Head-to-head and psychological edge

The recent head-to-head between these clubs is surprisingly even in tooth and claw terms. In the last ten meetings Burnley have taken four wins to Brentford’s two and have edged the goals column 9–8. That history removes any suggestion of complacency for Brentford — Burnley know how to turn this fixture into a knife-edge contest.

What to expect and three scenarios

There are three plausible match narratives here.

• Brentford control and edge (most likely) — The aggregate data and market model favour Brentford. If they press for the game, win the second-ball battles and exploit set-piece/corner superiority, they can secure the three points and lift themselves further clear in the middle of the table.
• High-scoring, open contest — Both teams have been involved in games that produce goals; Over 2.5 and BTTS probabilities point to a match that could open up, particularly if Burnley commit men forward early (they do their damage in the 16–30 window).
• Burnley resilience and a scrappy point — Despite the season-long difficulties, Burnley’s H2H wins and occasional late solidity mean they are capable of making this a tight, low-scoring tactical battle. A compact defensive display could yield a draw or narrow win, turning the fixture into one of those “difficult to break down” away days.

For Brentford, a win would confirm they can turn home advantage and attacking moments into consistent points. For Burnley, any positive result would be a meaningful corrective to a run that pundits and Fantasy managers are flagging as vulnerable.

Betting Market Predictions

The data-driven market picks included in the stats put Brentford as favourites (63%), with a slight lean towards goals: Over 2.5 at 53% and BTTS Yes at 56%. Those are useful framing numbers — they do not guarantee an outcome, but they underline the expectation of an attacking, potentially open match.