Burnley arrive in poor company in the table: across 13 league games they have taken 10 points (W3 D1 L9), scoring 15 and conceding 27 (GD −12). Their season so far is defined by a low scoring return and an alarming rate of goals conceded — the team’s data show they concede far more frequently than they score, and their shot-conversion metrics are inconsistent.
Crystal Palace have a healthier profile: 13 matches, 20 points (W5 D5 L3), 17 goals for and 11 against (GD +6). Palace are scoring earlier and more regularly — their “scored first” stat sits well above Burnley’s — and the recent market signal from the data providers points to Palace as favourites (55% probability).
Context and recent mood
Palace lost 2-1 at home to Manchester United on 30 November, a match in which United’s turnaround (and the influence of Mason Mount and Joshua Zirkzee) was highlighted in national coverage. The result intensified a conversation already started by Oliver Glasner, who has publicly criticised his club’s lack of summer reinforcements despite the demands of European football — a clear nudge at the board and a warning about squad depth.
For Burnley, recent domestic results underline a worrying pattern: they have struggled defensively in the Premier League and only occasionally shown the firepower to punish opponents. Their goal distribution is skewed toward late minutes (top scoring window 76–90), which suggests a reliance on late efforts rather than sustained control.
| Form snapshot (last 5) | Burnley | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (last 5) | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (last 5) | 60% | 60% |
| Scored first (last 5) | 40% | 80% |
| Min/Goal (For) (last 5) | 75 | 64.3 |
| Min/Goal (Against) (last 5) | 37.5 | 90 |
Head-to-head and histories
Recent H2H contests have tilted towards Palace. Across the listed meetings in the dataset Palace have scored 16 goals to Burnley’s 10 and have a higher win percentage in those fixtures. The most recent clear result in the file is a 3–0 Palace victory on 24 February 2024 — a reminder that Palace have been comfortable in this matchup at times.
| Head-to-head (summary) | Burnley | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (head-to-head) | 10 | 16 |
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 |
| Most recent H2H (listed) | — | 3–0 (24 Feb 2024) |
Tactical clues and what to expect
This looks like a classic structural mismatch. Burnley’s season numbers point to a side that concedes often and has trouble turning possession into consistent goals (15 in 13 matches). Palace are more balanced: they score slightly more, concede far less and tend to score in the middle of each half (top minute window 61–75). Those patterns suggest a game that could be cagey early, with Palace more likely to control phases and Burnley to rely on transitions and late efforts.
| Season indicators | Burnley | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| League record (P-W-D-L) | 13–3–1–9 | 13–5–5–3 |
| Goals for – against | 15–27 | 17–11 |
| Goal difference | −12 | +6 |
| Points | 10 | 20 |
Market signals and likely scenarios
Market-facing models in the dataset make Palace favourites (55% match-winner probability). The broader match signals also lean toward a lower-scoring game: Under 2.5 goals shows a 52% probability and the BTTS: No market sits at 51% — the combined story being that Palace are slightly more likely to win while both sides failing to score is a plausible outcome.
If Palace win: the result consolidates a stable first half of the season and underlines Glasner’s claim that, with the existing squad, they can be competitive — though his public barbs about recruitment will continue to be a narrative if injuries mount. A Burnley victory would be significant in calming growing pressure on a team leaking goals; failure to take points, however, will sharpen scrutiny on defensive organisation and the club’s ability to steady itself in the top flight.
Notes from the press
National coverage after Palace’s recent 2–1 defeat to Manchester United has highlighted United’s late improvements — match reports credited Mason Mount and Joshua Zirkzee for influencing the comeback, and pundit commentary (notably from Alan Shearer) praised the tactical tweaks by United’s manager Ruben Amorim. Those items are relevant because they show Palace are being tested by opponents who can change a game in the final third; Palace must respond structurally rather than rely on individual moments.
Verdicts
Expect Palace to head to this fixture as the steadier side on paper, with Burnley needing to find defensive consistency and a sharper attacking edge. The most likely match narratives are a narrow Palace victory or a low-scoring draw; an open, high-scoring game is less supported by the data provided.