Burnley welcome Everton to Turf Moor on 27 December (15:00 GMT) with the mood around both clubs defined less by Christmas cheer than by the thin margins of the Premier League. Burnley sit 19th with 11 points from 17 games, and while Scott Parker insisted his players handled “massive pressure” in last week’s 1-1 draw at Bournemouth, that line lands differently when your last 10 reads like a warning label: “DLLLLLLLWW”.
Everton arrive in 10th on 24 points, a mid-table position that flatters nobody but speaks to their competence. Yet David Moyes has also had to deal with self-inflicted damage: after a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal, he admitted he had “no complaints” about the decisive penalty and suggested Jake O’Brien “shouldn’t have raised arms”. It is the sort of basic detail that turns controlled performances into avoidable losses.
Where this game sits in the season
Burnley’s season numbers point to a side chasing matches and paying for it. They have conceded 34 goals in 17 fixtures, a rate that makes every small error feel terminal, and they have only scored first in 18% of games. Everton, by contrast, are not exactly prolific (18 goals in 17), but with only 20 conceded they are better set up for tight, low-scoring scripts.
 Burnley BUR |  Everton EVE | Season snapshot (Premier League 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 19th | 10th | Current position |
| 17 | 17 | Games played |
| 11 | 24 | Points |
| 19 | 18 | Goals for |
| 34 | 20 | Goals against |
Recent form: Burnley’s fragile balance vs Everton’s stop-start run
Parker’s Burnley have at least shown they can land a punch late: their “top minute window” this season is 76–90 (36%), and in the last five games that jumps to 80%. The problem is what happens before that. Burnley concede a goal every 45 minutes on average, and with only one clean sheet across the last 10, they are constantly negotiating danger rather than controlling it.
Everton’s last five is a mixed bag of scorelines and styles: a 1-0 loss to Arsenal, a 2-0 win at Chelsea, a 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest, a 1-0 loss at Bournemouth, and a 4-1 win over Newcastle. It reads like a side capable of sharp, decisive games — but not always able to stop the wobble arriving.
| Team | Last 10 form | Goals scored (avg) | Goals conceded (avg) | Failed to score | Clean sheets (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | DLLLLLLLWW | 1.2 | 1.9 | 30% | 1 |
| Everton | LLWWLWWDLL | 0.9 | 1.3 | 40% | 4 |
Head-to-head: Everton have had Burnley’s number
The recent record is not subtle. Across the head-to-head summary provided, Everton have six wins (60%) to Burnley’s three (30%), scoring 16 goals to Burnley’s eight and keeping five clean sheets to Burnley’s one. The most recent league meeting listed was a 1-0 Everton win on 6 April 2024, following a 2-0 Everton win at Burnley in December 2023 and a 3-0 home win in November 2023 (League Cup). Burnley’s standout response in that sequence is the 3-2 League Cup win in November 2023 — evidence they can hurt Everton, but also that it often comes in chaotic games rather than controlled ones.
| H2H summary | Burnley | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 16 |
| Wins | 3 (30%) | 6 (60%) |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 5 |
Tactical pressure points: late goals, set-piece territory and discipline
The data hints at a match where Everton may be comfortable letting Burnley have spells and then punishing mistakes. Burnley’s “scored first” rate (18%) is a major red flag: when they go behind, they are forced to gamble — and their concession timing (a goal against every 45 minutes, on average) suggests those gambles get punished.
There are also small edges that can add up. Everton’s season discipline is heavier on cards (2.12 average received) than Burnley (1.65), but Burnley’s corner profile is more worrying: they average 3.65 corners for and 6.29 against. If Everton can turn pressure into territory, those set-piece phases could become the game’s slow drip of control.
| Team trend (season) | Burnley | Everton | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored first (%) | 18% | 41% | Everton are more likely to dictate the game state early |
| Top minute window | 76-90 (36%) | 76-90 (29%) | Both can swing matches late; Burnley lean heavily on it |
| Avg corners (for / against) | 3.65 / 6.29 | 4.41 / 4.88 | Burnley often defend more set pieces than they win |
| Avg cards received | 1.65 | 2.12 | Everton risk conceding cheap free-kicks in dangerous zones |
| Min/Goal (Against) | 45 min | 76.5 min | Everton concede less frequently; Burnley live on the edge |
What to watch, and what the outcomes would mean
Burnley’s immediate question is whether their late resilience can keep bailing them out, or whether it is simply masking deeper problems. A side that has taken 11 points from 17 and concedes as regularly as Burnley do cannot keep relying on late moments forever — and Parker’s “massive pressure” admission sounded less like a rallying cry than an acknowledgement of how thin the margins have become.
For Everton, the narrative is different: they are 10th, but Moyes’ comments on O’Brien’s penalty concession highlight how quickly a solid structure can be undone by basic decisions. If Everton keep it clean and clinical, the head-to-head suggests they can make this another controlled away day; if they hand Burnley cheap entries into the box, they invite the sort of late scramble that Burnley’s numbers suggest they are built around.
If you’re tracking wider context around the weekend’s storylines and premier league predictions, this fixture looks like a classic test of nerve: Burnley needing points to give 19th place a different feel, Everton needing control to ensure mid-table doesn’t become mediocrity.