This weekend’s fixture pairs two sides whose seasons have followed different arcs. Everton arrive off a high profile, controversial win — a 1-0 victory at Manchester United on 24 November in which Idrissa Gueye was sent off — while Newcastle travel having mixed domestic and European commitments but still look the market’s marginal favourite for this meeting.
Form and the numbers that matter
Everton (12 matches this season) have 18 points from 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 13 (GD 0). Their attacking output is modest: 13 goals and 36 shots on target across the campaign, with a shot-conversion rate shown at 36%. Across the season Everton record BTTS in around 42% of matches and an Over 2.5 rate close to the mid-30s in the broader sample; in their most recent five-game sample the team has been less prolific, with 4 goals recorded.
Newcastle‘s season snapshot in the available data shows a side averaging a goal every ~40.9 minutes across a recent sample and a shot-conversion of about 31%, producing 11 goals and 35 shots on target in the figures provided. Their last-five metrics point to much more open games: Over 2.5 is at 80% and they score first in 80% of those fixtures, suggesting a team prone to high-scoring affairs in the short term.
Market signals from the same data set give Newcastle a 44% probability of victory, with Under 2.5 goals narrowly favoured at 52% and BTTS: Yes at 56% — a reminder that bookmakers expect goals but also a competitive encounter.
Head-to-head and recent mood
The long-term H2H summary in the file shows a slight edge to Newcastle in recent meetings (13 goals to Everton’s nine across the last ten), and recent fixtures include mixed scorelines: Everton won 0-1 at Newcastle on 25 May 2025 and recorded a 3-0 home win on 2 April 2024, while Newcastle have produced emphatic wins too (for example a 4-1 result in late 2023). Those results underline that this fixture can swing both ways.
Media coverage in the last week has focused on Everton’s dressing-room drama following the Old Trafford game. The BBC’s coverage carried two linked items: a straight report of the result and another noting that David Moyes defended Idrissa Gueye after the red card incident, framing the midfielder’s dismissal as part of a heated internal altercation with team-mate Michael Keane. Former England goalkeeper Joe Hart reacted on BBC Radio 5 Live saying “You don’t want anyone fighting” — a succinct expression of concern about public rows inside a squad. The narrative is two-sided: Everton showed resilience to win at Old Trafford, but the way they did it invites questions about discipline and atmosphere.
Key themes and players to watch
- Everton — resilience vs consistency: Everton have shown they can grind out big results, but their season numbers (13 scored, 13 conceded) point to a team that still struggles for consistent attacking threat. The squad’s discipline is under the microscope after the Gueye–Keane incident; how Moyes manages that narrative will affect mood on the pitch.
- Newcastle — finishing and late goals: the data hints at a Newcastle side that can score late (top-minute window 76–90 at 27% in a provided sample) and that have been involved in high-scoring games recently. If they break the deadlock early — as recent patterns show they often do — Everton will be forced to open up and that could play into Newcastle’s hands.
What to expect — three scenarios
Win for Everton — Would cement the feel-good factor generated by the Old Trafford victory and give David Moyes strong ammunition to quieten critics. It would also suggest that Everton’s defensive balance can withstand pressure even amid off-field distractions.
Draw — The most likely middle ground according to the narrow market margins. A share of the points would underline parity and leave both teams with work to do: Everton for consistency and Newcastle to sharpen finishing without inviting heavy defensive exposure.
Win for Newcastle — Reinforces the bookmakers’ slight preference and the narrative that Newcastle’s recent goal threat and ability to score late make them a dangerous proposition on the road. It would increase pressure on Everton to stabilise both results and dressing-room unity.
Bridge to kickoff
Statistically the tie has the ingredients for an open contest (BTTS indicated at 56% in the provided market view), but the narrow Under 2.5 market edge suggests a tight first half or a close scoreline overall. Off-field stories — Everton’s internal clash, Moyes’s public defence of Gueye and the media attention that follows — add an extra subplot that could either galvanise Everton or be a distraction. Newcastle travel as a slight favourite on the numbers; Everton have the immediate morale boost. Expect an intense match where small margins and temperament may decide the outcome.