Sunday’s Premier League meeting between Nottingham Forest and Brighton (30 November, 14:05) is shaping up as a tactical, low-margin encounter rather than a goal-fest. The statistical picture in the build-up points to a clash between a side that has struggled to score freely this season and a Brighton team carrying a markedly superior goals record.
Form and context
There are clear contrasts in season-long outputs. Forest’s attacking numbers are modest compared with Brighton’s: the hosts have nine goals recorded in the season data, while Brighton sit on 19. Brighton’s matches have been far more likely to feature goals on both ends — their season BTTS percentage is 75% versus Forest’s 40% — and they have converted more shots on target overall.
| Key indicator |  Nottingham Forest NOT |  Brighton BRI |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (season) | 9 | 19 |
| BTTS (season) | 40% | 75% |
| Clean sheets (season) | 8/36 | 13/20 |
| Avg corners (for) | 5.4 | 5.25 |
Attack and defensive profile
Brighton’s attacking profile looks more efficient on the raw numbers: 55 shots on target this season compared with Forest’s 30, and a higher season shot-conversion (35% v 30%). Brighton also tend to be dangerous late in games — their top minute window is 76–90 — whereas Forest’s finishing spikes come earlier, notably between 16–30 minutes in the sample.
| Offensive metric | Nottingham Forest NOT | Brighton BRI |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target (season) | 30 | 55 |
| Shot conversion (season) | 30% | 35% |
| Top scoring window | 16–30 (56%) | 76–90 (43%) |
| Min per goal (season) | 50 | 56.8 |
Recent form — what the last five matches tell us
Short-term trends slightly flatten the differences. Forest’s last-five snapshot shows an uptick in attacking output (over 2.5 in 80% of the sample) and more corners, while Brighton’s last-five numbers show a drop from their season-wide BTTS rate, suggesting a few quieter games. Expect a tight first half: Forest score earlier in their matches, while Brighton are prone to decisive moments late on.
| Last 5 — key stat | Nottingham Forest NOT | Brighton BRI |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (last 5) | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 (last 5) | 80% | 60% |
| Scored first (last 5) | 40% | 20% |
| Avg corners (last 5) | 6.2 | 5.4 |
Market snapshot and narrative
The market view in the available data gives Brighton the edge: a 47% probability is shown for the away side in the prediction block, while the over/under line is marginally leaning to under 2.5 (51%). Curiously, a BTTS “Yes” figure of 90% appears in the head-to-head summary — a strong signal that markets expect both teams to find the net despite the modest season total for Forest.
| Market indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Match-winner probability (market) | Brighton 47% |
| Over/Under 2.5 (market) | Under 2.5 — 51% |
| BTTS (market pick) | Yes — 90% |
| Implied tone | Tight, low-margin, late goals possible |
What to expect — scenarios
Brighton’s superior season numbers make them the likelier side to control possession and create higher-quality chances. Forest’s last-five form, however, suggests they are not without attacking threat and will try to win early periods as their scoring clusters around the first half.
Possible outcomes:
- A narrow Brighton win would confirm the season-long gap in offensive efficiency and reinforce the market view that the Seagulls are the safer pick.
- A draw — particularly a score draw — would underline Brighton’s occasional inability to convert dominance into comfortable margins and Forest’s capacity to be dangerous in short bursts.
- A Forest victory would be a statement that home set-pieces and early intensity can punish an away side that tends to finish games strongly rather than dominate the opening periods.
One last note from the wider media context: Arne Slot used the word “frustration” when discussing matches where high xG was not converted — a reminder that chances created do not always translate to results. In this fixture, the balance between chance creation and clinical finishing is likely to decide which of the two teams comes away with points.