Nottingham Forest welcome Manchester City to the Premier League on 27 December (15:00 GMT) with the contrast in their seasons already hard to ignore. Forest start the weekend in 17th on 18 points from 17 games, having lost 1-0 at Fulham on 22 December. City, meanwhile, sit second with 37 points from 17 games and arrive with the kind of scoring volume that tends to turn tense afternoons into processions.
The broader mood around the visitors is also being shaped off the pitch. A BBC clip this week captured Sean Dyche urging his Forest players to “enjoy themselves” over Christmas — with “common sense” — after Pep Guardiola said City’s players will be weighed on their return to training. It is a small story, but it fits: City’s edge is often as much about control as talent.
Where the gap is: second v 17th, 41 goals v 17
Forest’s league numbers look like a team trying to survive on fine margins: 17 goals scored and 26 conceded across 17 fixtures. City have scored 41 and conceded 16 in the same span, and the league table position reflects it — Forest are 17th, City are second.
 Nottingham Forest NOT |  Manchester City MCI | Category |
|---|---|---|
| 17th | 2nd | League position |
| 18 | 37 | Points |
| 17 | 17 | Games played |
| 17 | 41 | Goals for |
| 26 | 16 | Goals against |
Forest’s underlying efficiency is also a problem: their shot conversion is listed at 25% this season, with goals arriving every 90 minutes. City’s conversion is 44%, with a goal every 37.3 minutes — the kind of pace that forces opponents to defend perfectly for long stretches, then punishes the first lapse.
Recent form: Forest wobble, City keep stacking wins
Forest’s last five matches across competitions show a side bouncing between encouraging moments and familiar setbacks: a 3-0 win at Everton and a 3-2 win over Swansea are the highlights, but the most recent league outings include defeats at Fulham (1-0) and at home to Tottenham (3-0).
City’s last five includes a 3-0 win over West Ham and a 2-0 win over Brentford, but also a damaging-looking 3-0 defeat at Crystal Palace. Even then, the bigger picture from their “last 10” form line remains aggressively positive: they have been winning far more often than not.
| Team | Opponent | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | 0–1 | 22 Dec 2025 |
| Nottingham Forest | Tottenham | 0–3 | 14 Dec 2025 |
| Nottingham Forest | Everton | 3–0 | 06 Dec 2025 |
| Manchester City | West Ham | 3–0 | 20 Dec 2025 |
| Manchester City | Crystal Palace | 0–3 | 14 Dec 2025 |
Head-to-head: City’s recent control, Forest’s rare sting
The head-to-head summary tells a familiar story: City have five wins (71%) in the sample provided, scoring 16 goals and keeping five clean sheets. Forest have one win (14%), two goals and one clean sheet.
And yet there is a recent scar for City here: Forest beat them 1-0 in the Premier League on 8 March 2025. That result matters in a preview like this because it highlights the only plausible Forest route: keep it low-scoring, accept long spells without the ball, and take one moment well enough that the rest of the game becomes emotionally uncomfortable for the favourite.
| Head-to-head metric | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (share) | 1 (14%) | 5 (71%) |
| Goals | 2 | 16 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 5 |
The tactical tension: can Forest survive the early pressure?
The statistical profile suggests Forest are not a side that regularly land the first punch. They have “scored first” in 29% of league matches this season, and their “min/goal (against)” is 58.8 minutes — a clue that games can slip away before they even get settled.
City’s equivalent numbers are brutal for anyone trying to hang on: they have “scored first” 82% of the time, with goals arriving every 37.3 minutes and goals conceded only every 95.6 minutes. If Forest fall behind, they are not set up to chase; if City lead, they are built to suffocate.
| Metric (This season) | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first (%) | 29% | 82% |
| Min/Goal (For) | 90 min | 37.3 min |
| Min/Goal (Against) | 58.8 min | 95.6 min |
| Shot conversion | 25% | 44% |
| BTTS (Yes %) | 29% | 41% |
There are also two “when” trends that could shape the feel of the match. Forest’s top scoring minute window is 46-60 (28%), while City’s is 31-45 (29%). If City start to dominate territory, Forest may have to survive the period just before half-time — then find a way to spike the game early in the second half.
What to watch, and what it would mean
The available prediction model has City as the match-winner at 67%, with “Over 2.5” at 58% and “BTTS: No” at 55% — numbers that fit City’s mix of volume and control, and Forest’s struggles to score first. For additional context around the wider weekend narrative, you can also browse premier league predictions alongside this fixture’s trends.
One storyline to monitor is the January noise around City: the BBC reports they are in advanced talks over a move for Antoine Semenyo. It is the sort of transfer briefing that can either sharpen a group (“business as usual”) or create a faint sense of drift — and Forest will need any distraction they can get.
If Forest can keep this goalless deep into the game, the pressure flips: City become the side expected to break the lock, and the home crowd can turn every tackle and clearance into momentum. But if City’s scoring rhythm shows up early — as their season-long “scored first” rate suggests it often does — then the match risks becoming a long afternoon of damage limitation for Forest, and another small statement of control from Guardiola’s machine.