Predictions for this week
Tottenham vs Fulham
Tottenham
46%Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
Crystal Palace
45%West Ham vs Liverpool
West Ham
41%Nottingham Forest vs Brighton
Nottingham Forest
45%
Nottingham Forest
53%Aston Villa vs Wolves
Aston Villa
66%
Aston Villa
68%Chelsea vs Arsenal
Chelsea
40%Matchweek 13 in the Premier League fixture list brings a crowded slate and a model that is far from shy: it leans hard into home strength in some games, flags a couple of explosive goal-fests, and quietly warns that a few “favourites” are favourites only on paper. Below is a structured look at the data-driven angles, with a particular focus on the headline meeting between Chelsea and Arsenal, plus a clear separation between the strongest calls, the riskiest ideas and the predictions that are frankly not worth forcing.
Premier League Matchweek 13: where the numbers are pointing
The model offers a clear top tier of home favourites: Manchester City are given a 65% chance to beat Leeds, while Aston Villa are pushed even higher at 70% at home to Wolves. In between, there is a cluster of more modest leans – Brentford at 53% against Burnley, Tottenham at 46% over Fulham, and a very cautious 40% nod towards Chelsea in the London derby with Arsenal.
That mix already tells a story: strong trust in the top-end home sides, far less conviction once the fixture becomes more balanced or emotionally loaded.
| Match | Market | Model lean | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City vs Leeds | 1X2 | Manchester City | 65% |
| Brentford vs Burnley | 1X2 | Brentford | 53% |
| Tottenham vs Fulham | 1X2 | Tottenham | 46% |
| Aston Villa vs Wolves | 1X2 | Aston Villa | 70% |
| Chelsea vs Arsenal | 1X2 | Chelsea | 40% |
If you are looking for the “best” ideas in a week like this, they clearly sit with the heavyweight home favourites and the games where the goal markets are heavily tilted one way. The more the model drifts towards the 40–45% range, the more you are stepping into territory where small details – a red card, a missed penalty, a tactical tweak – will decide everything.
Chelsea vs Arsenal: London derby built for goals
The headline clash of the weekend is framed less as a question of who wins and more as a question of how wild it becomes. The model gives Chelsea only a 40% chance of taking the points against Arsenal, a very cautious nod that reads more like “slight home preference” than any kind of strong conviction.
Where the numbers do come alive is in the goal expectancy. “Both teams to score – Yes” is rated at 66%, and “Over 2.5 goals” sits at 65%. Put simply: this derby is being treated as a high-energy, high-variance occasion rather than a controlled tactical chess match.
| Market | Model lean | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea win | 40% |
| BTTS | Yes | 66% |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 | 65% |
From a preview point of view, that split is important. The model is effectively saying two things:
- It refuses to call a clear favourite in terms of the result – a 40% home number against a big opponent is closer to “coin flip plus home bias” than genuine superiority.
- It is very comfortable predicting a game with chances at both ends and a strong likelihood of three goals or more.
In editorial terms, this makes the goal profile the more robust storyline than any deterministic result narrative. A tight, cagey 0–0 would actively go against the data; a sharp, chaotic derby with momentum swings would fit it perfectly.
The strongest model leans: high-confidence calls
When we talk about the “best” predictions in this set, we are really talking about those above the 65% mark, where the model is clearly taking a stance. There are a few stand-out calls:
- Aston Villa to beat Wolves (70%) and to score first (70%) – this is as close to a statistical double-lock as you get this week.
- Goals in Brentford vs Burnley: Over 2.5 at 69% and BTTS Yes at 67% – the model is effectively shouting “this should be open”.
- BTTS Yes in Chelsea vs Arsenal (66%) – strong agreement with the idea that both attacks should land blows.
These are the predictions that justify being called “mejores”: not guaranteed, of course, but clearly favoured by the numbers over the rest of the slate.
| Rank | Match | Market | Model lean | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa vs Wolves | 1X2 | Aston Villa win | 70% |
| 2 | Aston Villa vs Wolves | First team to score | Aston Villa | 70% |
| 3 | Brentford vs Burnley | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% |
| 4 | Brentford vs Burnley | BTTS | Yes | 67% |
| 5 | Chelsea vs Arsenal | BTTS | Yes | 66% |
From a content angle, these are the calls you highlight, not just because they are “high probability” but because they help define the tactical tone of the week: Villa expected to control their derby, Brentford–Burnley flagged as a chaotic meeting, and a London derby where keeping a clean sheet looks close to fantasy.
Risk radar: favourites with fragile backing
This is where the model becomes provocative. Several “favourites” are only barely favourites – and those are the predictions you classify as the most risky. A 40–45% number means the model gives more weight to the favourite than to any single alternative, but collectively the draw and the other side still have the upper hand.
These are the riskiest 1X2 calls on the card:
| Match | Market | Favoured outcome | Probability | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Arsenal | 1X2 | Chelsea win | 40% | |
| Everton vs Newcastle | 1X2 | Newcastle win | 40% | |
| West Ham vs Liverpool | 1X2 | West Ham win | 41% | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Brighton | 1X2 | Nottingham Forest win | 41% | |
| Crystal Palace vs Manchester United | 1X2 | Crystal Palace win | 45% |
These are the predictions that deserve a clear warning label. They can be part of the story – “the model dares to lean towards Palace at home to United” – but they are not the kind of calls you base a conservative strategy on. In editorial terms, they are perfect for a “bold picks” or “outsider options” section, certainly not for a “safe bets” tagline.
Predictions to treat with caution
Finally, there is a third group: markets where the model has an opinion, but that opinion is too close to 50–55% to really justify strong confidence. These are your “menos recomendadas”: not because they are wrong, but because the edge is thin and the narrative payoff is limited.
The Everton vs Newcastle game is the clearest example. BTTS Yes is rated at exactly 50%, while Under 2.5 goals is only at 55%. That combination screams “messy, low-margin forecasting” more than it does any clear identity for the game.
| Match | Market | Model lean | Probability | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton vs Newcastle | BTTS | Yes | 50% | |
| Everton vs Newcastle | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55% | |
| Tottenham vs Fulham | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Aston Villa vs Wolves | BTTS | No | 56% | |
| Crystal Palace vs Manchester United | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% |
Putting it all together for a Matchweek 13 preview
For a strong Premier League Matchweek 13 piece, the structure writes itself:
- Build the narrative around Chelsea vs Arsenal as an attacking derby rather than a result you can “solve”.
- Highlight the “mejores” model stances: Aston Villa’s dominance against Wolves, and the high-scoring profile of Brentford vs Burnley.
- Use the risky 40–45% favourites – Chelsea, Newcastle, West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace – as your tension points, the places where the weekend could flip the narrative.
- Relegate the thin-edge calls (Everton–Newcastle goal markets, marginal overs and unders elsewhere) to secondary supporting detail rather than centrepiece predictions.
The result is a piece that feels honest about uncertainty, clear about where the model is strongest, and unafraid to point out that some so-called favourites are standing on very fragile ground.