Saturday’s Premier League meeting at Stadium of Light (15:00 GMT) pits two clubs level on 19 points but taking very different paths through the opening 12 fixtures. Sunderland arrive with a compact goals record and a tight defensive rhythm at times; Bournemouth show more attacking volume but also clear defensive leakiness. The market gives Bournemouth a narrow edge, but the numbers suggest a closer contest than the odds imply.
Form snapshot and recent trends
Sunderland’s season has been built on efficiency rather than dominance: 14 goals from 12 matches and an ability to turn late phases into decisive moments (their top minute window is 76–90). Bournemouth, by contrast, have 19 goals and substantially more shots on target (59 to Sunderland’s 32) but their shot conversion is lower, signalling profligacy in and around the box.
| Last 5 — attacking snapshot |  Sunderland SUN |  Bournemouth BOU |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 5) | 7 | 8 |
| Shots on target (last 5) | 13 | 28 |
| Shot conversion (last 5) | 54% | 29% |
| Top scoring window (last 5) | 76–90 | 16–30 |
Season dashboards: where the teams differ
Two teams with the same points but different stylistic fingerprints. Sunderland are more economical — fewer shots, higher conversion — while Bournemouth flood the opponent with shots but concede frequently, reflected in their negative goal difference.
| Season indicators | Sunderland SUN | Bournemouth BOU |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for (season) | 14 | 19 |
| Shots on target (season) | 32 | 59 |
| Shot conversion (season) | 44% | 32% |
| Min per goal (for) | 77.1 | 56.8 |
| BTTS (season) | 42% | 58% |
Defence, discipline and match control
Bournemouth concede as quickly as they score — their Min/Goal (against) of 54 is stark compared with Sunderland’s 98.2 — which explains why matches involving Bournemouth often open up. Sunderland have been cleaner at the back in absolute terms (seven clean sheets to Bournemouth’s eight) but they do less to control set-piece and corner situations.
| Defence & discipline | Sunderland SUN | Bournemouth BOU |
|---|---|---|
| Clean sheets (season) | 7 | 8 |
| Min per goal (against) | 98.2 | 54 |
| Avg cards received | 1.92 | 2.5 |
| Avg corners (for) | 3.33 | 6.08 |
| Scored first (season) | 17% | 50% |
Head-to-head, market signals and what to watch
The recent head-to-head record slightly favours Bournemouth across the last ten meetings (five goals to Sunderland’s three and two wins). Market models on Kickwie list Bournemouth as the single most probable match winner (40%) while the overall market leans marginally toward a low-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 51%) — yet BTTS probability is 56%, reflecting Bournemouth’s tendency to both score and concede.
| Head-to-head (last 10) | Sunderland SUN | Bournemouth BOU |
|---|---|---|
| Goals in last 10 H2H | 3 | 5 |
| Wins (last 10) | 1 (25%) | 2 (50%) |
| Clean sheets (last 10) | 0 | 2 |
The wider media cycle contains stories about managerial pressure elsewhere in the league — notably Arne Slot at Liverpool — and Sunderland have a tough fixture sequence coming up (Liverpool and Manchester City are listed among their next five). That makes Saturday’s result double-edged: a Sunderland win would quieten talk and give momentum before daunting opponents; a Bournemouth victory would underline their attack-led project despite defensive fragility.
Possible scenarios
- A low-scoring, tight Sunderland defensive display: Sunderland control transitions, limit Bournemouth’s high-volume shooting and nick a late goal (fits Sunderland’s late scoring window).
- Bournemouth open game: their volume of chances and higher corners forces Sunderland onto the back foot, producing a BTTS outcome and multiple late goals.
- Stalemate: both teams cancel each other out — low conversion for Bournemouth and conservative Sunderland shape produce a 0–0/1–1 draw consistent with the market’s Under 2.5 lean.
All three outcomes are plausible. What will define the game is whether Bournemouth can convert their numerical superiority in chance creation into clear chances inside the box — if they do, Sunderland’s conservative scoring profile will be tested.