Sunderland vs Leeds: head to head & Predictions (28-12-2025)

Sunderland welcome Leeds on 28 December in a Premier League meeting that feels less like a classic and more like a referendum on two very different forms of dysfunction. Sunderland sit 6th with 27 points from 17 games, still in the top end despite scoring only 19 and conceding 17. Leeds are 16th on 19 points from 17, having shipped 31 goals already — and, lately, doing it loudly.

The data sketches two competing identities: Sunderland’s season has been built on control and containment, while Leeds have become a chaos machine that scores (24 goals) but concedes even faster. The question is whether Sunderland’s often-cautious rhythm can slow a Leeds side that, over the last five, has turned almost every match into a high-event sprint.

Where the table says “gap”, the numbers say “style clash”

Sunderland’s league position is strong, but their underlying profile is not one of a team cruising. They have scored first in just 24% of league games this season and their Over 2.5 rate sits at 35%, pointing to a side that too often waits for matches to come to them. Leeds, by contrast, have a league Over 2.5 rate of 71% and BTTS (Yes) of 65% — a mix that usually means entertaining afternoons for everyone except their own defenders.

Sunderland SUN	Metric (Season)	Leeds LEE
6	League position	16
27	Points	19
19	Goals for	24
17	Goals against	31
35%	Over 2.5 (Yes %)	71%

Sunderland’s recent reality: clean sheets, but a blunt edge

Sunderland’s last five league matches have produced a 0-0 at Brighton and a 1-0 win over Newcastle, results that underline their ability to manage games. But the same run also includes a 3-0 defeat at Manchester City and a 3-2 loss to Bournemouth, reminders that when they crack, they can crack quickly.

The bigger concern is at the other end. Sunderland’s shot conversion is listed at 37% across the season, but the last five games show a drop to 25% — and with “scored first” at 24% over the campaign, they’ve often asked the match to remain patient until late. Their top scoring minute window this season is 76-90 (33%), which can be a weapon, but also a warning: you do not want your entire plan to be “hang in and hope”.

Leeds: the goals are real, the defending is a problem they keep ignoring

Leeds’ last five league games read like a stress test: a 4-1 win over Crystal Palace, followed by a 3-3 with Liverpool, a 3-1 defeat at Chelsea, and a 3-2 loss to Manchester City. Even their calmer outing, a 1-1 at Brentford, still fits a pattern: Leeds do not keep things quiet.

They have scored 13 goals in their last five league matches and are converting chances at 50% in that sample, with a top scoring window of 61-75 (44%). That is the seductive part of Leeds right now — they can hurt anyone. But the season numbers are unforgiving: 31 conceded, a -7 goal difference, and a “Min/Goal (Against)” of 49.4 minutes across the season. That’s not “bad luck”; it’s a defensive structure that gives away too much, too often.

Head-to-head: tight margins, familiar tension

The recent record between these clubs leans towards close games. Their most recent meeting was a 2-1 win for Leeds on 17 February 2025, and the one before that ended 2-2 (4 October 2024). There’s also a 0-0 (9 April 2024) and a 1-0 Sunderland win (12 December 2023). Even the broader head-to-head summary is dead even on wins: both have 2 (29%).

That balance matters because it suits Sunderland’s instincts. If they can keep Leeds from turning it into a track meet, history says they’ll be in it deep into the second half.

The noise around Leeds, and what it means on the pitch

The week has come with a familiar kind of distraction for Leeds: a Yahoo Sports report claims Manchester City are planning a big-money bid for a Leeds forward valued at £40 million. No player name is provided in the available information, but the timing is awkward for a side already living on the edge of games. When your margins are thin, external noise tends to get louder inside the stadium.

For Sunderland, the immediate challenge is simpler: avoid gifting Leeds momentum early. The last-10-game data shows Sunderland concede 1.1 on average and score 1.2, while Leeds score 1.7 but concede 2.0. That points to a match Sunderland can shape — if they play with enough ambition to punish Leeds’ open door rather than simply staring at it.

If you’re looking for broader context around premier league predictions, this fixture stands out because the statistical signals argue with each other: model probabilities suggest Under 2.5 at 57%, yet BTTS: Yes sits at 56%. In other words, it could be cagey, or it could explode — and Leeds are usually the reason it explodes.

A Sunderland win would reinforce the idea that their 6th-place position is more than a nice story — that they can control volatile opponents without relying on late miracles. A Leeds win, especially with their recent scoring run, would feel like proof that their attacking level can drag them out of trouble even when the defensive numbers scream otherwise. A draw? It would suit Sunderland’s season, and it would keep Leeds exactly where they’ve been: thrilling, fragile, and one bad half from another unwanted headline.