Tottenham vs Brentford — match preview head to head & Predictions

Tottenham host Brentford on 6 December with both sides level on points yet pulling in different directions. Spurs’ season reads like a high‑wire act — 19 points from 14 games with 23 scored and 18 conceded — while Brentford have the same tally from 14, but a negative goal difference and a staccato rhythm. The head-to-head leans towards Tottenham and the data promises action: Spurs’ last five have all delivered both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and the model edge is nudging in that direction again.

Head-to-head: Spurs’ recent edge, Bees’ occasional sting

The recent series has tilted towards the hosts. The head-to-head summary shows Tottenham with more goals (17) and more wins (5, 56%) than Brentford (10 goals, 1 win, 11%), with Spurs also logging more clean sheets. Even so, Brentford’s 3–1 away win in 2023 is a reminder that this fixture has room for a twist.

Form and mood: chaos vs control

Tottenham’s last 10 run reads erratic — “DLLDLWLWDD” — yet their games have become guaranteed spectacles. Over the last five, Spurs have recorded 100% for both BTTS and over 2.5, scored nine goals, and, tellingly, opened the scoring in just 20% of those fixtures. That combination paints a side that plays on the edge and invites a response.

Brentford’s recent sequence is more worrying: four defeats in the last five. The 2–0 loss at Arsenal was accompanied by a BBC verdict that highlighted a “mature” home performance; Mikel Merino and Bukayo Saka did the damage, with Mikel Arteta praising his team’s control and Danny Murphy pointing to Arsenal’s depth. It underlines Brentford’s current reality: competitive in phases but conceding momentum too easily.

Tottenham — last five at a glance

Brentford — last five at a glance

The numbers: why this should be open

Across the season sample (14 fixtures each), Spurs show 71% over 2.5 and 57% BTTS, while Brentford sit at 64% for both. Tottenham average six corners for and 2.5 cards received; Brentford generate 5.43 corners with 1.86 cards. In attack, Spurs’ efficiency stands out — 23 goals from 44 shots on target with a listed conversion of 52% — while Brentford carry volume (58 shots on target) but a lower conversion rate (36%). Timing also matters: Spurs’ top scoring window is just after half-time (46–60), Brentford’s late surge is a theme (76–90).

Angles, context and scenarios

The market view is cautious on a home win. The match-winner probability tilts to Tottenham at 38%, with Over 2.5 at 52% and BTTS: Yes at 63%. That aligns neatly with Spurs’ recent pattern of high-event games and Brentford’s tendency to trade chances, especially late on.

There’s also narrative noise around Spurs: a BBC piece this week noted Son Heung-min’s return to the club environment, which at the very least sharpens the focus on their attacking identity. Fixture congestion is real — Spurs face Slavia Praha three days later — but the available numbers point more to tempo and game-state than to rotation. For a wider Premier League sweep, Kickwie’s premier league betting tips add useful context on trends this week.

How could it play out? A Spurs win would back up their strong head-to-head and soothe a jittery league run by confirming their firepower can outrun the defensive leaks. A Brentford result — built on fast transitions and that late-game scoring window — would validate their attacking volume and ease the sting of recent defeats. A draw with goals feels like the statistical middle ground; either way, the expectation is for a game that breathes, rather than one that locks up early.