Leeds vs Liverpool head to head & Predictions (06 Dec)

Expectation and anxiety return to Elland Road. Leeds arrive from a cathartic 3-1 win over Chelsea that ended a four-game losing run, a result Daniel Farke called “huge” amid talk of mounting pressure and relegation-zone worries. Across the halfway line, Liverpool have been unconvincing in recent domestic outings and needed a late deflection from a Florian Wirtz shot off Nordi Mukiele to salvage a 1-1 draw at Sunderland. It sets up a meeting of contrasting energies: Leeds rediscovering a blueprint, Liverpool searching for fluency.

Form check: a new Leeds spark vs Liverpool’s uneven rhythm

The mood in Yorkshire has shifted quickly. Match of the Day voices Danny Murphy and Shay Given highlighted how Farke “stumbled” on a new system against Chelsea and, for once, Elland Road had both control and incision. The underlying numbers this season still warn of volatility — Leeds’ matches have often opened up (Over 2.5 goals in 71% of their games; BTTS at 57%), with their goals conceded arriving at short intervals (one every 48.5 minutes).

Liverpool’s picture is more nuanced. They have 22 points from 14 league fixtures, with seven wins and just one draw but also six defeats. Their attack shows the promise of late surges (their “top minute window” for scoring is 76–90 minutes at 45%), yet recent finishing has cooled: across the last five matches they’ve produced 24 shots on target but only four goals, with a 17% shot conversion.

Those probabilities align with what we’ve seen: Leeds games are high-event and Liverpool tend to arrive late. If you’re scanning the wider weekend slate and looking for premier league betting tips, this fixture sits firmly in the “goals in play” bracket.

Season snapshot: the basics

Beyond the headlines, the league ledger tells you these teams are chasing different targets. Leeds have 14 points from 14 after that statement win; Liverpool are still within range of the top places but need to tidy up the inconsistency that has crept in over the autumn.

Stylistically, Leeds’ 16 goals for and 26 against underline why matches tilt into chaos; Liverpool’s season portfolio features 21 goals, 59 shots on target and a 36% shot conversion, yet their last five have dipped from those season levels. One thread runs through both: they invite corners — Leeds average 3.93 for per game, Liverpool 5.29 — and neither side looks particularly shy about trading attacks.

Head-to-head: heavy scores and a rare Leeds scalp

The recent history leans Liverpool, emphatically at times. In the broader head-to-head snapshot, Liverpool lead on goals (23) and wins (5, 71%), with three clean sheets; Leeds have one win and no clean sheets in that sample. The 1-6 at Elland Road in April 2023 and the 6-0 at Anfield in February 2022 are still fresh scars. Yet there is a modern counterpoint: Leeds’ 2-1 win at Anfield in October 2022 proved they can land a punch in this rivalry.

Recent results: what’s changed in the last fortnight

Leeds’ turnaround is tangible in the scores, not just the mood music. The Chelsea win followed two narrow defeats and a setback at Nottingham Forest; the pattern was of a side competing but conceding at awkward moments. Liverpool’s last five across competitions mix two strong home wins with three away slips, including that late 1-1 at Sunderland.

Leeds – last matches

Liverpool – last matches

Tactical thoughts: where this game tilts

If Farke keeps faith with the Chelsea blueprint, expect Leeds to be braver between the lines and earlier in transition — an approach that feeds their “Top Minute Window” this season (31–45 minutes, 33% of goals). The risk is obvious: Liverpool’s late-game profile is punishing, especially if the contest opens up. With Leeds scoring first in only 36% of matches, game state will matter; Liverpool tend to grow into matches and can force corners and territory as minutes tick by.

Two details to watch. First, Liverpool’s discipline around the box: they’ve averaged 5.29 corners for per game and do commit fouls (11.21 per match), so they’ll see set-piece volume. Second, Leeds’ shot profile — 52 shots on target this season and a 31% conversion — can damage an opponent whose form line includes recent away reverses. If the contest becomes a trade of chances, Elland Road’s energy could turn that into more than a one-off surge.

What it would mean

A home win would confirm that Farke’s “stumbled-upon” system is more than a one-night spark and buy time for a group that was in the relegation zone only days ago. For Liverpool, a clean, controlled victory would steady a stuttering domestic rhythm and reassert the late-game authority their numbers suggest. If it drifts into another messy shootout, a draw would feel better for the visitors than the hosts — but it would keep the questions alive on both benches.