Saturday’s Topspiel in the Bundesliga brings Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund together on 29 November 2025 (kick-off 17:30). The fixture arrives with extra urgency: local coverage has framed it as “a must not lose?” given that the table is tight — the gap between 2nd and 10th is only five points, so three points here would be meaningful for either side.
What the numbers say
On paper Dortmund enter the game with the sharper season totals. In the set of season stats available, Borussia Dortmund show 17 goals for and a +6 goal difference across five matches listed (Pts 10, GP5 W3 D1 L1 F17 A11). Bayer Leverkusen have scored fewer in the comparable sample (F8 A10, Pts 8, GP5 W2 D2 L1) and sit with a negative goal difference (-2).
There are telling contrasts in underlying patterns. Leverkusen’s overall BTTS rate reads 17/36 in the dataset and their clean-sheet count appears as 14/36; Dortmund’s defensive record is represented by 22/36 clean sheets and a lower BTTS figure (6/36). In other words: Leverkusen’s results lean toward matches where both teams find the net less often across the season snapshot, while Dortmund’s profile in these stats suggests stronger defensive returns — but Dortmund also show a higher shots-on-target and conversion rate (30 SoT and 57% shot conversion in the season sample versus Leverkusen’s 16 SoT and 50% conversion).
| Key indicator |  Bayer Leverkusen BAY |  Borussia Dortmund DOR |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (season sample) | 8 | 17 |
| Goals conceded (season sample) | 10 | 11 |
| Shot conversion | 50% | 57% |
| BTTS (season) | 17/36 | 6/36 |
| Clean sheets (season) | 14/36 | 22/36 |
Recent form — momentum and warning signs
Form lists in the dataset highlight contrasting recent runs. Borussia Dortmund have several high-scoring results in their recent fixtures across competitions (for example a 4–0 win over Villarreal is recorded), and their last five competitive matches include wins and draws that delivered 17 goals across the season snapshot. By contrast, Bayer Leverkusen’s recent items include heavy European defeats and a mixture of domestic results — their scoring rate and defensive fragility appear inconsistent in the last few weeks.
| Last 5 — Leverkusen (selected) | Result |
|---|---|
| vs Manchester City | 0–2 |
| vs VfL Wolfsburg | 1–3 |
| vs 1. FC Heidenheim | 6–0 |
| vs Benfica | 0–1 |
| vs Bayern München | 3–0 |
| Last 5 — Dortmund (selected) | Result |
|---|---|
| vs Villarreal | 4–0 |
| vs VfB Stuttgart | 3–3 |
| vs Hamburger SV | 1–0 |
| vs Manchester City | 1–1 |
| vs FC Augsburg | 4–1 |
Head-to-head: recent meetings
The recent H2H sequence included several high-scoring affairs. The dataset lists last meetings stretching back across seasons — samples show wins for both sides and multiple games that produced multiple goals. That recent volatility means neither team can claim clear dominance in terms of decisiveness.
| Recent H2H | Bayer Leverkusen BAY | Borussia Dortmund DOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2025 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 3 | 2 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | 1 | 1 |
| 03 Dec 2023 | 0 | 2 |
| 29 Jan 2023 | 1 | 0 |
Market view and likely patterns
Prediction data included in the file gives Bayer Leverkusen a 40% probability in the 1X2 market. The same dataset flags Over 2.5 at 60% and an eye-catching BTTS: YES at 100% for this fixture — a strong market signal that expects both sides on the scoresheet and a match with goals. That aligns with the recent head-to-head sequence, which has produced multiple multi-goal games.
| Market indicator | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Home win probability | 40% | Market pick (1X2) |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | Expectation of goals |
| BTTS: Yes | 100% | Market expects both to score |
| Recent top-minute windows | LEV: 46–60 / DOR: 76–90 | Where each team tends to score |
What to watch on the day
Two sharp storylines stand out from the provided data. First, finishing efficiency: Dortmund’s higher shot numbers and conversion suggest they can punish defensive lapses — Leverkusen cannot afford sloppy moments. Second, the market’s BTTS and Over 2.5 lean implies this is likely to be an open contest; recent H2H and both teams’ recent fixtures back that up.
If Leverkusen find rhythm and control the middle moments (their top minute window in a recent sample was 46–60), they can create danger; if Dortmund sustain their late-game scoring tendency (top window 76–90 in the season sample), they could be a match-winner late on.
Three plausible scenarios
- High-scoring draw or narrow Dortmund win — the simplest outcome given the market and H2H: both teams score, late game swings decide the margin and the table remains tight.
- Leverkusen take control — if Leverkusen cure the defensive holes seen in some recent matches and press effectively, a home victory (40% market probability) would push them up and quiet questions around consistency.
- Dortmund impose themselves — should Dortmund reproduce the attacking efficiency from their season sample and exploit set-piece or transitional moments, they can leave Leverkusen chasing and claim three decisive points.
This is a fixture where small margins matter. A win here means more than three points; another flat performance would amplify doubts that the respective project is delivering consistently. Expect intensity, goal moments, and a result that could reshape the immediate top-of-the-table conversation.