Bundesliga action returns to the big stage as Bayern München host FC St. Pauli on 29 November 2025 (14:30). On paper this is a one-sided fixture: the market gives Bayern a 94% chance of victory, and the statistics underline why. But there are useful angles here beyond the obvious scoreline — particularly around goalscoring rates, defensive fragility and the pressure on St. Pauli to stop leaking chances.
Where the teams stand
Bayern München have produced the sort of offensive numbers that make visitors wary: 15 goals so far this season, 40 shots on target and a shot conversion around 38%. They score frequently (sample min/goal ~30 minutes) and are playing in a style that produces both chances and goals — the site sample shows BTTS in 80% of recent fixtures and Over 2.5 in 100% of a five-match sample, underlining how often their games are open.
FC St. Pauli are the opposite story. Eleven matches delivered just 9 goals, a -12 goal difference and only 7 points (W2 D1 L8). Their goals-per-minute is poor (about 110 minutes per goal), while their defence concedes frequently (21 goals in those 11 games). That combination explains why they sit deep in the table and will be under severe pressure in Munich.
| Key indicator | Bayern | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (season) | 15 | 9 |
| Shots on target (season) | 40 | 43 |
| Shot conversion | 38% | 21% |
| BTTS (sample / season) | 80% | 36% |
| Min/goal (For) | 30 min | 110 min |
Recent meetings and form
The recent head-to-heads are stark: Bayern have dominated the fixture historically and in the modern meetings available in the data. St. Pauli have not managed a win in the listed encounters, while Bayern have been the consistent side for results and goals.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar 2025 | Bayern München | 3–2 | FC St. Pauli |
| 09 Nov 2024 | FC St. Pauli | 0–1 | Bayern München |
| 07 May 2011 | FC St. Pauli | 1–8 | Bayern Munich |
| 11 Dec 2010 | Bayern Munich | 3–0 | FC St. Pauli |
Recent performance snapshot
Both teams show contrasting trends over short samples. Bayern’s recent fixtures produce a lot of goals and chances — a squad able to convert with efficiency. St. Pauli’s recent run is poor: results and defensive numbers suggest they are fragile and failing to create consistently.
| Metric (last 5 sample) | Bayern (sample) | St. Pauli (sample) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (Yes %) | 80% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 (%) | 100% | 40% |
| Scored first (%) | 40% | 20% |
| Avg corners (for) | 4.6 | 5.55 |
| Avg cards (received) | 2 | 1.91 |
Betting Markets and Predicitions
The predictive model and market are emphatic: Bayern are overwhelming favourites (94% match-winner probability in the data). The market also leans toward goals — Over 2.5 has a strong signal (75% in the snapshot) while BTTS: No is noted at 60% in a separate market pick — reflecting two competing ideas: Bayern score a lot, but they also keep clean sheets often enough in the season sample.
| Market metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Match winner (Bayern) | 94% |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 — 75% |
| BTTS | BTTS: No — 60% |
| Implied story | Bayern win; market expects goals but not necessarily both teams |
What to watch on the day
– If Bayern score early they are likely to open the game and force St. Pauli into risky transitions; the hosts convert more frequently and generate more chances per minute.
– St. Pauli’s best route is to make the match messy and draw fouls and set-piece opportunities; their listed top minute attacking window sits later in matches, which suggests they may try to hope for late momentum rather than sustained control.
– Discipline and game management matter: Bayern’s matches show a reasonable cards profile and steady corner production, while St. Pauli concede often and struggle to score — leaving them vulnerable to counter-attacks and second-ball situations.
Likely scenarios
– A routine Bayern win (clear victory) would reinforce the idea that this side is among the league’s most dangerous attacking outfits and that St. Pauli’s defensive issues are unresolved.
– A closer game with goals but a narrow Bayern victory would underline the hosts’ ability to create and finish chances while occasionally conceding in open play.
– An upset or a resilient St. Pauli clean sheet would be the most consequential outcome for the visitors’ survival hopes — and would force questions about Bayern’s squad rotation and focus ahead of a congested period.