Bundesliga action arrives at the Commerzbank-Arena as Eintracht Frankfurt host VfL Wolfsburg on the weekend. The raw numbers that surround this fixture suggest an encounter dominated by defensive frailty and a high chance of goals: both clubs have conceded heavily this season and their recent sample of matches points to frequent both-teams-to-score outcomes.
Where the form and numbers point
Eintracht Frankfurt arrive without momentum in the league picture: across five league games shown here they have collected four points (W1 D1 L3) and have a concerning goals difference of 7–14 (GD -7). Offensively their shot conversion in the season sample reads well (50% on a small sample) but that masks a deeper problem — they concede far too easily, with a goal conceded roughly every 32 minutes in the wider season sample.
VfL Wolfsburg have played more matches in the dataset (11) and while they have two wins and eight points, their defensive record is only marginally better on paper: 13 goals scored, 21 conceded (GD -8). The visitors show higher frequency of BTTS and Over 2.5 in both season and recent five-match samples — a trend that underpins the expectation of an open game.
| Head‑to‑head summary | Eintracht Frankfurt EIN | VfL Wolfsburg WOL |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 10 H2H) | 13 | 17 |
| Wins (last 10 H2H) | 2 | 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 10 H2H) | 0 | 3 |
| Most recent meeting | 1–1 (02 Feb 2025) | 1–1 (02 Feb 2025) |
Season snapshot: what the standings-style metrics tell us
This is not a classic top-versus-top tie: both sides are mid‑table / lower mid‑table in the samples, and the defensive numbers are the clearest shared weakness. Eintracht have fewer games in the sample but their goals conceded per match is alarmingly high; Wolfsburg, with a larger sample, still concede at a similar rate and have produced more matches with both teams scoring.
| Key indicator | Eintracht Frankfurt EIN | VfL Wolfsburg WOL |
|---|---|---|
| Games played (sample) | 5 | 11 |
| Points (sample) | 4 | 8 |
| Goals For–Against | 7–14 | 13–21 |
| Goal difference | −7 | −8 |
| BTTS (season fraction) | 28/36 | 15/18 |
Recent five-game indicators
Turn to the last-five fixtures sample and the contrast is subtle but important: Wolfsburg’s recent five-match numbers show a higher likelihood of BTTS and scoring first, while Eintracht’s small sample indicates they struggle to score first and have been more porous at the back.
| Last 5 (sample) indicator | Eintracht Frankfurt EIN | VfL Wolfsburg WOL |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (Yes %) | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (%) | 40% | 60% |
| Scored first (%) | 20% | 60% |
| Min/goal (For) | 75 | 90 |
| Min/goal (Against) | 64.3 | 50 |
Market signals and what to expect
Kickwie’s model — visible in the dataset — gives Eintracht Frankfurt the edge for the match-winner probability (69% in the sample). At the same time the same model highlights high match volatility: Over 2.5 is registered at 63% and BTTS at 63%.
| Market indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Match winner (model) | Eintracht 69% |
| Over 2.5 (model) | 63% |
| BTTS (model) | 63% |
| Season BTTS trend (combined) | High |
What to watch on the day
1) Defensive openness: Both teams concede frequently; the match is likely to produce chances at both ends. Wolfsburg have a higher sample of BTTS and Over 2.5, which suggests they will not sit back even away from home in this dataset.
2) Early momentum: Wolfsburg’s recent five-match sample shows a stronger tendency to score early (top minute window 0–15 in their seasonal sample); if they hit the front quickly, Eintracht will be forced to chase and the game could open up further.
3) Fixture congestion: Eintracht have a busy run following this game (RB Leipzig and a Champions League trip to Barcelona are listed in the dataset). How the coach balances minutes could influence selection and intensity here — a flat performance would look costly given the tight schedule that follows.
Possible scenarios
- A high‑scoring draw or narrow win for either side — the statistical signals point to BTTS and Over 2.5 being likely outcomes; a 1–1 or 2–1 scoreline would fit the data pattern.
- An early goal by Wolfsburg would likely force Eintracht to commit men forward, increasing space in transition — favourable for a game with multiple chances and goals.
- If Eintracht defend more compactly than their seasonal numbers suggest and limit the number of chances, a low‑scoring surprise is possible — but the dataset makes that the less probable route.
In short: expect an open, unsettled tie. Defensive records and recent-match samples favour goals and BTTS; the model in the data gives Eintracht the narrow edge, but the balance is finely poised and a single moment of quality or a defensive lapse can decide the night.