Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart in a Bundesliga fixture scheduled for 2025-11-29 at 15:00 UTC. The headlines are straightforward: Hamburg arrive as a low-scoring, fragile side with too few points from their fixtures, while Stuttgart look like the more coherent unit and are being linked with attacking reinforcements in the background.
Where things stand
There is a clear contrast in profiles. Hamburger SV have managed only 9 goals in 11 league appearances (GD −8) and sit with 9 points from those games (W2 D3 L6). Their season numbers point to an attack that struggles for rhythm — shot conversion sits at 17% for the campaign — and a defence that is leaking too regularly.
VfB Stuttgart have, on paper, similar points (9) but from fewer recorded fixtures in the summary (GP5 W3 D0 L2). Their goal metrics are healthier: 8 scored and just 4 conceded in that sample, giving a positive goal difference. In the last five-game metrics Stuttgart look more clinical: their minutes-per-goal for is far better (56.3) and they are among the teams that score late (top minute window 76–90).
Key numbers
| Key indicator |  Hamburger SV HAM |  VfB Stuttgart STU |
|---|---|---|
| Points (sample) | 9 | 9 |
| Games played (sample) | 11 | 5 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Goals For – Against | 9–17 | 8–4 |
| Goal difference | −8 | +4 |
Recent form and tendencies
Hamburg’s season and recent results underline two troubling patterns: a low scoring rate (min/goal for the season around 110 minutes) and a defence that concedes frequently (min/goal against ~58 minutes). Their BTTS rate this season is moderate (around 36%) and they are not reliably scoring first (scored first in roughly 18% of fixtures).
Stuttgart’s profile is almost the inverse. They score more frequently and are better at keeping clean sheets (clean sheets figure higher in the seasonal summary). In the last-five sample Stuttgart show a higher over/2.5 and BTTS rate, and a far better corners-for average — a sign of territorial control and pressure in attack.
| Last 5 — key rates | Hamburger SV HAM | VfB Stuttgart STU |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (last 5) | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (last 5) | 20% | 80% |
| Scored first (last 5) | 20% | 40% |
| Min/goal (For) | 150 | 34.6 |
| Avg corners (for) | 5.4 | 4.0 |
Head-to-head context
The historical snippets in the records favour Stuttgart: in the head-to-head summary provided, Hamburg have scored 20 across the listed period to Stuttgart’s 21; Hamburg have three wins (30% of listed H2H instances) while Stuttgart have five (50%); clean sheets are rare in this fixture but Stuttgart have edged that statistic.
| H2H summary | Hamburger SV HAM | VfB Stuttgart STU |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (recent H2H) | 20 | 21 |
| Wins (recent H2H) | 3 (30%) | 5 (50%) |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
Market and media picture
The market snapshot provided in the data gives VfB Stuttgart the edge with a 44% match-winner probability; the market also has Over 2.5 as the preferred total (62%) and BTTS at about 50% — the numbers reflect expectations of goals. Media outlets have also flagged a potential transfer response from Stuttgart in attack: Sky Germany (reported via Yahoo) says the club is eyeing additions, naming Troy Parrott and Lucas Stassin as possible targets. That report also notes an injury to Ermedin Demirovic, leaving only one fit striker — listed in the summary as Deniz Und… — which makes transfer activity logical and underlines that Stuttgart’s depth up front is a talking point.
| Market view | Value |
|---|---|
| Favoured match winner | VfB Stuttgart (44%) |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 (62%) |
| BTTS | BTTS: Yes (50%) |
What to watch on the day
Hamburg must find a way to score more consistently; their shot conversion and slow minutes-per-goal are worrying when facing a Stuttgart side that defends more compactly. For Stuttgart, the key question is forward depth: the public reporting of interest in additions and the mention of an injury to Ermedin Demirovic suggests the coach is juggling available options. If Stuttgart are forced to rely on a solitary fit striker (the file of the summary names Deniz Und…), they may be vulnerable to a disruptive home atmosphere — but their recent efficiency and defensive numbers give them a clear structural edge.
Scenarios
- Stuttgart win: Confirms market sentiment that they are the more efficient, better-organised side; pressure eases and transfer chatter becomes a planned reinforcement rather than a panic.
- Hamburg win: A much-needed shot in the arm for a team that has struggled for goals; it would raise questions about Stuttgart’s depth if they fail to break down a low-scoring home team.
- Draw: The most likely consequence is a narrow, compact game with late drama — preserves the status quo in the tables but keeps the narrative open on both sides.
Expect a tactical, detail-driven contest where Stuttgart’s attacking efficiency and Hamburg’s need for goals shape how the game unfolds.