Bundesliga action resumes on 30 November 2025 as SC Freiburg host FSV Mainz 05 (kick-off 18:30). At a glance this promises a compact, low‑error game: the market model on Kickwie gives Freiburg a 47% chance to win, a slight lean towards under 2.5 goals (52%) and, curiously, lists BTTS as a 100% market pick — a sign bookmakers see an evenly matched contest with both sides likely to find chances.
Where both teams stand
Freiburg arrive unbeaten in the five league games recorded this season sample (P5: W3 D2 L0) and have outscored opponents 8–3 in those fixtures, a sign of a team that is compact defensively and relatively efficient going forward. Mainz’s small sample (P4: W3 D0 L1) shows a side that wins when it clicks — nine goals across the season for Mainz compared with Freiburg’s eight — but fewer matches played in the dataset make direct comparisons slightly noisy.
| Season summary | SC Freiburg FRE | FSV Mainz 05 MAI |
|---|---|---|
| Played (sample) | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–2–0 | 3–0–1 |
| Goals For–Against | 8–3 | 9–4 |
| Points (sample) | 11 | 9 |
Key numbers that shape the tactical duel
This is a contest between Freiburg’s control and Mainz’s thrust. Freiburg boast a superior defensive minutes-per-goal ratio across the season sample (min/goal against 150 in season metrics), while Mainz show a higher shot conversion (39% season figure) — they need fewer chances to score. Set-piece and corner dynamics also differ: Mainz average more corners in the season sample (6.33) compared with Freiburg (4.8), which could matter in tight games.
| Offensive profile (season) | SC Freiburg FRE | FSV Mainz 05 MAI |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For | 8 | 9 |
| Shots on target (season) | 31 | 23 |
| Shot conversion | 26% | 39% |
| Top minute window | 31–45 | 16–30 |
Defensive makeup and match rhythm
Both teams show clean-sheet ability in the dataset — the raw clean-sheets entries read as 11/36 for Freiburg and 18/36 for Mainz in the season snapshot — but those proportions are shown as part of a larger sample. Freiburg’s recent form displays quicker minutes per goal for (56.3 in the five-fixture sample), suggesting their attack is finding rhythms; Mainz’s data show they are more likely to score early in games across the season sample (scored first 67%).
| Defensive & tempo metrics | SC Freiburg FRE | FSV Mainz 05 MAI |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (season) | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (season) | 40% | 50% |
| Scored first (season) | 40% | 67% |
| Clean sheets (season sample) | 11/36 | 18/36 |
Recent form snapshot (last 5 fixtures)
Last-five metrics give more immediate clues. Freiburg’s small-form sample shows higher recent Over 2.5 and BTTS rates than Mainz, indicating their matches have been more open. Mainz’s recent fixtures show fewer high-scoring games (Over 2.5 at 20% in last five) and a higher disciplinary burden (average cards reported at 3 in the five-fixture sample).
| Last 5 — key metrics | SC Freiburg FRE | FSV Mainz 05 MAI |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (last 5) | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 (last 5) | 60% | 20% |
| Avg corners (for) | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| Avg cards (received) | 1.4 | 3.0 |
Head-to-head and context
The recent H2H between these two has been tight and low-scoring: the compiled head-to-head summary shows similar parity — Freiburg with nine goals in the record and Mainz with ten, each side recording two wins and three clean sheets apiece in the listed sample. Recent specific meetings in the dataset include draws and narrow results, reinforcing the expectation of a close affair.
How the game might play out — three scenarios
- Freiburg control, narrow win: If Freiburg impose their typical mid‑block and control possession in the second quarter-hour (their top minute window is 31–45 for goals), Mainz may struggle to create sustained chances. A 1–0 or 2–0 win for Freiburg would underline their defensive solidity in the sample (season GD +5).
- Open, both score: The season and recent BTTS figures (Freiburg 60%, Mainz 50–60% in samples) leave room for both teams to find the net. If Mainz convert early — they score first more often in the season sample — the match could become expansive and head towards a 1–1 or 2–1 scoreline.
- Mainz edge on set pieces: With Mainz averaging more corners in the season sample (6.33 v 4.8), they can test Freiburg aerially. If Freiburg fail to neutralise those moments and Mainz keep a high shot conversion rate, an away win by the odd goal is feasible.
What matters going forward: a Freiburg victory would confirm their early-season consistency and ability to control tight Bundesliga matches; a Mainz win would underline that their finishing and set-piece edge can decide close games even on the road. A draw would be the most likely soft landing that reflects the limited separation in the datasets.