VfB Stuttgart welcome Bayern München on Saturday in a meeting that feels tailor-made for high drama. The numbers frame it starkly: Bayern are top of the Bundesliga with 11 wins from 12 and 44 goals scored, while Stuttgart have been one of the league’s great entertainers — prolific late scorers, but prone to wild swings. Models lean heavily towards the champions, yet recent 3–3s and a history of the odd Stuttgart ambush mean this is unlikely to be a quiet afternoon.
Form lines and pressure points
Bayern arrive with a nine-win-in-ten surge (form: WWDWWWWWWW) and a scoring rate of 3.5 goals per game across their last 10. Even when they’ve wobbled — a 2–2 at Union Berlin and a 2–1 defeat away to Paris Saint-Germain — they’ve still created enough to keep control of the wider narrative. Stuttgart’s last 10 reads LDWLWWWWWL, a run that includes 3–3s against Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Braunschweig, a 3–2 over Augsburg and a heavy 0–4 reverse to Dortmund. The through-line is volatility: fun, yes; watertight, no.
| Key indicator (last 10) |  VfB Stuttgart STU |  Bayern München BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (avg) | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 5 |
| Avg corners won | 4.7 | 6.0 |
| Avg yellow cards | 1.5 | 1.9 |
Stuttgart’s strength is late acceleration. This season, their top scoring window is the final quarter-hour (76–90), and they’ve converted chances at 43% across their past five — evidence of a team that doesn’t need many looks when it clicks. The problem is control: conceding four to Dortmund and Go Ahead Eagles in November, plus those 3–3s, suggest an open game plan that Bayern’s frontline typically devours.
Bayern’s numbers are blunt: a goal every 24.5 minutes in the league this season, 46% shot conversion, and 6–2 over Freiburg the last time they played domestically. They aren’t invincible — Paris and Union probed gaps — but their floor is high. If Stuttgart leave space in transition, Bayern usually punish.
Head-to-head: Bayern’s grip, with one notable exception
The last 10 meetings skew heavily towards Bayern: 7 wins to Stuttgart’s 1, with the champions outscoring their hosts 28–10 and posting four clean sheets. There is, however, a fresh scar for Bayern: Stuttgart’s 3–1 victory in May 2024 — proof the Swabians can flip the script on their day.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2025 | VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Bayern München | Super Cup |
| 28 Feb 2025 | VfB Stuttgart 1–3 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Bayern München 4–0 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 04 May 2024 | VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 17 Dec 2023 | Bayern Munich 3–0 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Season snapshot: where they stand now
Stuttgart sit sixth with 22 points from 12, scoring in bursts but still conceding at a rate that keeps games alive. Bayern are first on 34 points, unbeaten and averaging nearly four goals a match. That contrast is the story: Stuttgart can hurt anyone, but Bayern are by far the more stable unit week to week.
| Season 2025 (Bundesliga) | VfB Stuttgart STU | Bayern München BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Position / Points | 6th / 22 | 1st / 34 |
| Record (W–D–L) | 7–1–4 | 11–1–0 |
| Goals For | 21 | 44 |
| Goals Against | 17 | 9 |
| Goal Difference | +4 | +35 |
How the game could play: late punches and who lands the first blow
Patterns matter here. Stuttgart’s season-high scoring window is 76–90 minutes, while Bayern also lean into late surges over the full season — and in the last five they’ve spiked between 31–45 minutes. Stuttgart have scored first in just 42% of league matches; Bayern do so in 75%. If the champions get in front early, Stuttgart’s willingness to trade attacks becomes a tactical gamble. It can thrill; it can also unravel quickly against a side converting 46% of their shots this season.
| Scoring patterns (season) | VfB Stuttgart STU | Bayern München BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Min per goal (For) | 51.4 | 24.5 |
| Shot conversion | 32% | 46% |
| Top minute window | 76–90 (32%) | 76–90 (28%) |
| Scored first | 42% | 75% |
| BTTS (Yes) | 67% | 50% |
Data edge and model view
Model projections tilt decisively towards Bayern, but also anticipate goals at both ends. For a broader slate of picks around Germany this weekend, you can browse curated Bundesliga predictions and betting tips.
| Market | Model view | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match winner (1X2) | Bayern München | 80% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| Both teams to score | BTTS: Yes | 100% |
Possible scenarios
– Bayern front-runs and manages risk: An early lead would funnel the match into Bayern’s sweet spot — control phases, selective bursts — and reinforce their title cadence.
– Stuttgart turn it chaotic: If the hosts drag this into a transition shootout and keep contact into the last 20 minutes, their late-scoring profile gives them a puncher’s chance. The 3–1 from May 2024 is a reminder of what that looks like when the breaks fall their way.
– A goal-laden draw: The modeling flags goals and, given Stuttgart’s recent 3–3 habit and Bayern’s 100% Over 2.5 run this season, a high-scoring stalemate would not be a shock. It would raise questions for Bayern defensively without denting the belief that they remain the league’s benchmark.
A Bayern win would harden the sense of inevitability around the title race. A statement result for Stuttgart, by contrast, would energise the top-six battle and suggest their high-wire act can upset even the division’s most efficient machine.