There is nothing glamorous about this one, but there is plenty riding on it. VfL Wolfsburg sit 15th with nine points from 12 games (W2 D3 L7, 14–22) and return home having conceded three in back‑to‑back league fixtures on their own patch. Union Berlin arrive 11th (15 points; 4–3–5, 15–19) and off a bruising fortnight that included defeats to St. Pauli and Heidenheim either side of a stirring 2–2 with Bayern.
The recent head‑to‑head leans on needle and control rather than chaos: four 1–0s in the last seven, mostly decided by single moments rather than open exchanges. Model projections shade it to the hosts and to a low total, but the nuance sits in the details: Wolfsburg’s defensive looseness versus Union’s chance to cash in on set‑pieces and direct play, and the visitors’ energy management after a midweek date with Bayern on 3 December.
Head‑to‑head: small-score football
The recent series has been defined by narrow wins and regular clean sheets, with Union holding the slightest edge over the last ten meetings.
| Key indicator |  VfL Wolfsburg WOL |  Union Berlin UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Wins in last 10 H2H | 4 | 5 |
| Goals in last 10 H2H | 9 | 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 10 H2H) | 3 | 4 |
Across the last three league meetings alone, the scoreline has read 1–0 each way and 1–0 to Union again. Control, compactness and the first goal tend to decide this fixture.
Form and momentum
Wolfsburg have just one league win since early November and have been porous at home; Union, meanwhile, have taken two points from their last four Bundesliga outings. The twist: Union’s last‑five sample shows they’ve been striking first more often than not, yet failing to turn it into wins.
| Form meter (last 5, all comps) | VfL Wolfsburg WOL | Union Berlin UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 results | D–L–W–L–L | L–L–D–D–L |
| Scored first (%) | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals (%) | 60% | 60% |
| Goals For (last 5) | 5 | 6 |
| Shots on target (last 5) | 25 | 22 |
The immediate trend is sobering for both: Union’s recent returns are lean, while Wolfsburg’s last two home league games ended 1–3 and 2–3. If anyone needs structure back, it’s the hosts.
Season snapshot: strengths and stress points
Over 12 league matches, the numbers paint a pragmatic picture. Wolfsburg’s defensive timings are worrying (conceding roughly every 49 minutes) and they give up a heavy 7.9 corners per game; Union are steadier across the board, with slightly better attacking tempo and set‑play volume.
| Season 2025 (league) | VfL Wolfsburg WOL | Union Berlin UNI |
|---|---|---|
| GP–W–D–L | 12–2–3–7 | 12–4–3–5 |
| Goals For–Against | 14–22 | 15–19 |
| Goal difference | -8 | -4 |
| Min per goal (For/Against) | 77.1 / 49.1 | 72.0 / 56.8 |
| Avg corners for (per game) | 4.0 | 5.0 |
Set‑pieces look like a route for Union (5.0 corners for, 5.25 against) against a side conceding nearly eight corners a match. If Wolfsburg can’t curb that supply, they will spend long spells defending their own area.
Attacking patterns: where the chances come from
Neither side is shot-happy, so timing matters. Wolfsburg’s best window recently has been straight after half-time; Union’s comes late in the first half, with plenty of offsides hinting at a direct, line‑breaking approach.
| Attacking trends (last 5) | VfL Wolfsburg WOL | Union Berlin UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Shot conversion (%) | 20% | 27% |
| Offsides (against) | 13 | 16 |
| Top minute window | 46–60 (40%) | 31–45 (33%) |
| BTTS Yes (%) | 80% | 60% |
| Avg corners for | 4.0 | 5.8 |
What the models say and how it might play
Numbers point to a narrow contest with limited scoring. The modelling leans slightly towards Wolfsburg, but not convincingly; the more emphatic view is on total goals and both‑teams‑to‑score.
| Market | Model lean | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner (1X2) | VfL Wolfsburg | 40% |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | 51% |
| BTTS | No | 58% |
If Wolfsburg win: it would feel like a small stabiliser for a side conceding too often and too easily, and a useful reset before trips to Mönchengladbach and a home date with Freiburg. If Union nick it: it would validate their direct approach and set‑play edge, while puncturing a ground where they have shared several 1–0s. A draw would extend both teams’ drift, leaving the tactical questions unchanged.
For a deeper dive into model angles around the Bundesliga card, see the latest Bundesliga predictions and betting tips.