Atalanta vs Fiorentina: Head to Head & Predictions (30 Nov)

The Serie A meeting between Atalanta and Fiorentina arrives on 30 November 2025 at 17:00 GMT. The fixture pits a side that has struggled to find consistency this month against an opponent whose season numbers feel contradictory: decent attacking metrics but very few league wins.

Quick snapshot

Numbers paint an interesting contrast. Atalanta have been relatively efficient in front of goal given their low volume (6 scored) and a stronger defensive return (5 conceded). Fiorentina, by contrast, have scored more but conceded heavily — their -9 goal difference underlines defensive fragility. The BTTS split suggests Fiorentina games more often turn into goal exchanges, whereas Atalanta’s matches show a lower rate of both teams scoring.

Form guide: last five matches

Form is messy on both sides. Atalanta arrive having mixed domestic and European results — a huge away defeat to Eintracht contrasts with league wins. Fiorentina have produced draws and narrow results, and their season classification (many draws, few wins) suggests they are difficult to beat but also struggle to turn chances into consistent victories.

Attacking and defensive traits

The underlying profile is revealing. Fiorentina create more shots on target but concede far more frequently — their opponents score sooner on average. That imbalance has produced entertaining matches (their BTTS is high) but also leaves them vulnerable. Atalanta look more compact defensively on the season numbers and score more often in the late second quarter (61–75), which hints at set-piece or late-phase proficiency.

Head-to-head context

The H2H record slightly favours Fiorentina in terms of wins and clean sheets, and their marginally higher goals tally suggests these fixtures rarely lack moments. That history, combined with Fiorentina’s season tendency to be in higher-scoring affairs, makes the match less predictable than the market’s narrow edge for Atalanta.

Market read and what to expect

Market models attached to the dataset give Atalanta a 52% chance of victory. The same sources view Over 2.5 goals at about 51% and a slight lean towards BTTS: NO at 51%. In plain terms: bookmakers see a tight game with a small home advantage to Atalanta, but the statistics leave room for goals — especially given Fiorentina’s 67% BTTS rate this season.

Three plausible scenarios

• Atalanta control and nick it: If Atalanta manage to stifle Fiorentina’s early thrusts and score in the second-half window they’re strong at, the home side can take three points — the market’s most likely outcome.
• End-to-end, finishes level: Fiorentina’s high BTTS suggests an open game. If both teams commit and defensive frailties are exposed, Over 2.5 and BTTS becomes the natural result.
• Low-scoring, tight draw: Given Atalanta’s lower BTTS and better defensive numbers, the match can also tilt into a 0–0/1–1 pattern if both coaches prioritise solidity — a frustrating afternoon for neutrals but a credible result.

What this match will clarify: whether Atalanta can convert sporadic attacking quality into consistent domestic momentum, and whether Fiorentina’s attacking output is sufficient to cover for the defensive problems that have left them with a poor goals-against record this season. Neither side is without questions — and that makes San Siro (or the listed venue) an intriguing battleground.