Genoa vs Atalanta: head to head & Predictions

Genoa welcome Atalanta on Sunday with a thick layer of context hanging over the fixture. The league table says mid-pack versus lower-mid (Atalanta 12th on 19 points; Genoa 16th on 14 after 15 games), but the recent history between them has been far more one-sided. Earlier this month Atalanta beat Genoa 4–0 in the Coppa Italia, and the broader head-to-head picture suggests a mental hurdle the hosts still haven’t cleared.

Head-to-head: the weight of recent history

The head-to-head summary is stark: Atalanta have six wins to Genoa’s none, outscoring them 24–9 and keeping five clean sheets across the sample provided. The last meeting, on 03 December, finished 4–0 to Atalanta in the cup — a reminder of the gap Genoa must close.

Genoa have managed clean sheets in this fixture before (three in the dataset), but the trend is clear: when the game opens up, it tends to tilt blue-and-black.

Form guide: same chaos, different outcomes

Across the last 10 matches, both teams have lived in tight margins — but in different ways. Genoa’s pattern reads like a pulse (LWWDDWLLDL), with more goals at both ends: they’ve averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded. Atalanta’s line (WLWLLLDDDD) has been draw-heavy and lower scoring: 0.9 for, 1.4 against. Corners tilt strongly to the visitors (5.9 per game to Genoa’s 3.3), which mirrors their broader territorial play.

If you zoom in to the very recent sample, the contrast sharpens. Genoa’s last five matches have been 100% over 2.5 goals with 80% BTTS, and they’re conceding a goal roughly every 40.9 minutes. Atalanta’s last five show 80% over 2.5 and 60% BTTS, with a goal scored every 40.9 minutes and one conceded every 90 — signs of a side rediscovering balance while staying dangerous.

Season snapshot and on‑pitch tendencies

Neither side has sprinted from the blocks this season, but Atalanta’s underlying tempo remains higher. Genoa, meanwhile, are living on narrow leads and recoveries; their “BTTS (Yes)” sits at 67%, and their minute-per-goal-against figure (58.7) underlines why games so often turn into scrambles.

Table picture (after 15 games)

Attacking profile (season to date)

Another detail worth circling: in Atalanta’s last five matches, 45% of their goals arrived between 76–90 minutes. They’ve busted games late, which matters against a Genoa side that often concedes in waves.

Predictions and match outlook

Model signals lean away from the narrative of a goal glut. The probabilistic view points to Atalanta as favourites and hints at a cagey total, while still nodding to both teams finding the net.

For Genoa, a win would feel like more than three points — it would be a break with a draining head-to-head trend and a timely push away from the bottom end of the table. A draw would steady the pulse after that cup defeat, especially if it comes with a cleaner defensive display. Another defeat, particularly if it follows the familiar pattern of conceding in clusters or late, would reinforce uncomfortable questions about game management.

For Atalanta, victory would back up recent results — they’ve beaten Cagliari (2–1), Chelsea (2–1) and Verona (3–1) across competitions — and add substance to a season that has threatened to plateau into draws. Dropped points would not be disastrous, but given the fixture list ahead, it would nibble at momentum.

If you’re also scanning the wider European weekend, Kickwie’s hub for italian serie a predictions provides a useful companion read.

There’s no definitive script here, but there are clear scenarios. If Genoa turn this into a fight — high BTTS, chaotic tempo — they’ll need to handle Atalanta’s late surge. If the visitors control territory and set-piece volume (as their corner numbers suggest), the balance of probabilities favours them. Either way, it’s a test of composure as much as quality.