Saturday’s fixture at Stadio Luigi Ferraris feels less like a classic and more like a meeting between two teams who have struggled for attacking rhythm. Genoa host Verona on 30 November with both sides stuck near the foot of the table and goals in short supply. The numbers point to a low-tempo, cagey game: market models give Genoa the slight edge (44% probability) but also expect an under‑2.5 match (64%) and a low chance of both teams scoring (BTTS: NO, 65%).
Where things stand
Formally, these are two sides who have found it hard to win. Genoa have managed only one victory from 12 matches (W1 D5 L6) and sit on 8 points; Verona are even further behind with no wins so far (W0 D6 L6) and 6 points. Off the pitch that translates into different kinds of anxiety: Genoa have shown flashes — a higher shot conversion this season — but concede more often, while Verona have been blunt in attack and often fail to score first.
| Season snapshot |  Genoa GEN |  Verona VER |
|---|---|---|
| Played (GP) | 12 | 12 |
| W‑D‑L | 1‑5‑6 | 0‑6‑6 |
| Goals For – Against | 11–19 | 7–18 |
| Goal difference (GD) | ‑8 | ‑11 |
| Points | 8 | 6 |
Recent form
The last five results underline why both managers are under pressure: Genoa have been producing draws and narrow defeats, while Verona have eked out sporadic away wins but remain toothless in attack overall.
| Date & opponent | Genoa GEN |
|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 — Cagliari | 3 – 3 |
| 09 Nov 2025 — Fiorentina | 2 – 2 |
| 03 Nov 2025 — Sassuolo | 1 – 2 |
| 29 Oct 2025 — Cremonese | 0 – 2 |
| 26 Oct 2025 — Torino | 2 – 1 |
| Date & opponent | Verona VER |
|---|---|
| 23 Nov 2025 — Parma | 1 – 2 |
| 08 Nov 2025 — Lecce | 0 – 0 |
| 02 Nov 2025 — Inter | 1 – 2 |
| 29 Oct 2025 — Como | 3 – 1 |
| 26 Oct 2025 — Cagliari | 2 – 2 |
Tactical and statistical pointers
There are three clear storylines you can extract from the data.
- Low scoring, low trust in finishing. Genoa have 11 goals in the campaign and a modest shot conversion (22% this season), but that has not translated into wins. Verona are even slimmer in attack — 7 goals all season and a 13% conversion — which helps explain their zero wins.
- First‑goal narrative. Genoa score first in about half their matches (50%), whereas Verona have managed to score first in only 8% of games. That suggests Genoa are more likely to hold the initiative early; Verona often have to chase.
- Match profile points to fewer goals. Both teams have moderate BTTS rates (Genoa 58%, Verona 50%) but the market prediction favours no BTTS and under 2.5 goals — a sign that the expectation is for tight defending and finishing problems to persist.
| Key indicator | Genoa GEN | Verona VER |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (Yes %) | 58% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 (%) | 58% | 42% |
| Scored first (%) | 50% | 8% |
| Shot conversion | 22% | 13% |
| Min per goal (For) | 98.2 | 154.3 |
What to expect — scenarios
If Genoa get a foothold early and score first (they have a far higher ‘scored first’ rate), they can force Verona into a more open shape — which could create chances but also expose Genoa’s defence. That is the scenario most likely to produce a single decisive goal and a home win.
Conversely, if Verona keep the game tight and frustrate Genoa in the final third — plausible given Verona’s conservative numbers and Genoa’s recent inability to convert pressure into points — the match could finish goalless or very low-scoring, confirming the market view (under 2.5 and BTTS: NO).
Finally, another draw is a realistic outcome: Genoa’s recent run of draws and Verona’s propensity for narrow results make a stalemate a credible and not particularly exciting conclusion. For both clubs, a win alters the narrative — for Genoa it would relieve pressure and turn variable performances into momentum; for Verona it would be the first genuine jump-start to a stagnant season.