Lazio vs Cremonese: head to head & Predictions

Lazio meet Cremonese in Serie A with contrasting rhythms but a familiar storyline. The hosts are listed as P 8 with 22 points from 15 matches, while the visitors are P 11 with 20 from the same sample. Recent weeks have nudged the mood in opposite directions: Lazio have stitched together sturdy, low-scoring performances; Cremonese have swung between encouraging punches and costly lapses.

The state of play: compact Lazio, restless Cremonese

Lazio’s season profile is deliberately restrained. In the league sample provided (15 fixtures), BTTS shows at just 13% and Over 2.5 at 20%, underlining their preference for control over chaos. They’ve also been late scorers, with their top minute window at 76–90. Cremonese are a livelier watch: BTTS at 60% and Over 2.5 at 40% point to more open contests, and their own top late window is also 76–90. The difference, for now, is defensive reliability and game management.

Metric	Lazio LAZ	Cremonese CRE
Position	8	11
BTTS (Yes %)	13%	60%
Over 2.5 (%)	20%	40%
Shots on Target (season)	67	50
Shot Conversion	25%	36%

That conversion gap is notable: Cremonese turn a relatively modest volume (50 shots on target) into goals at 36%, but they also invite pressure, allowing an average 6.67 corners against this season. Lazio aren’t blitzing teams (3.73 corners for, 67 shots on target across the campaign), yet their late-goal trend and steadier defensive cadence (Min/Goal Against at 122.7) put the onus on the visitors to prove they can sustain attacking threat without being picked off late.

Head-to-head: Lazio’s clear upper hand

The historical pattern is difficult to argue with. Lazio have won all the recent meetings listed, conceding just twice across three matches. Cremonese need to flip a dynamic that has repeatedly tilted against them in both league and cup.

The story is consistent: when Lazio set the tempo, they rarely let Cremonese breathe. Given this season’s numbers, the visitors’ route to a result likely requires discipline without the ball and far sharper timing in the final third — their 26 offsides this season hint at an attack that runs too eagerly beyond the last line.

Trends and projection

Model signals back a home-leaning, relatively tight encounter: the match-winner market lists Lazio at 70%, with Under 2.5 at 53% and BTTS: NO at 52%. That aligns with Lazio’s season profile (low BTTS, low over rate) and the head-to-head pattern. It doesn’t make this a formality, but it sets a clear expectation for how the game might look.

Late goals remain a subplot. Lazio’s top minute window is 76–90 both across the season and, even more emphatically, in the last five matches sample provided. Cremonese also show a late-window tendency in their season data, though their last five tilt toward the 31–45 band, which can be a double-edged sword away from home if they fade after the break.

Form guide: last five results

Lazio

Cremonese

Lazio’s recent run blends resilience (three clean sheets in that five-game spell) with just enough punch. Cremonese’s sequence is more volatile: a fine 3–1 at Bologna overshadowed by four defeats where they failed to score three times. That inconsistency is precisely what Lazio tend to punish.

What this could mean

If Lazio win, they stabilise their top-half footing and keep the narrative of a controlled, pragmatic season intact. A draw would be a missed opportunity, particularly given their head-to-head record. For Cremonese, taking anything in Rome would be a timely jolt to the storyline — proof they can translate a decent conversion rate into points against a side that rarely opens the door.

For a broader look across Italy this week, Kickwie’s hub for italian serie a predictions is a useful companion read.