Parma host Udinese on 30 November 2025 (15:00 GMT) in a fixture that, on paper, promises a low-scoring, tight contest. The season numbers paint two sides that have struggled for consistency but remain capable of causing each other problems: Parma have 11 points from 12 games while Udinese sit slightly higher on 15.
Snapshot: where the numbers put both teams
| Key indicator | Parma | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 15 |
| Games played | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 2–5–5 | 4–3–5 |
| Goals For–Against | 9–15 | 12–20 |
| Goal difference | −6 | −8 |
These basic figures tell a straightforward story: neither team is scoring freely and both have defensive issues. Parma have only nine goals in 12 matches; Udinese have slightly more but have conceded 20. That combination explains why the market is leaning towards fewer goals.
Form and the last five matches
| Last 5 — key indicators | Parma | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (last 5) | 100% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 (last 5) | 100% | 60% |
| Scored first (last 5) | 40% | 20% |
| Min per goal (For, last 5) | 56.3 | 56.3 |
Two contrasting trends stand out. Parma’s recent mini-sample shows goals in every game (BTTS 100% in the last five), even if their season scoring total is low — that suggests matches involving Parma have been unpredictable and often decided late (their season top-minute window is 76–90, 33%). Udinese, meanwhile, have been steadier but less prolific in terms of goals-for and less likely to open the scoring in the recent five-game slice.
Head-to-head and history
| H2H summary (recent) | Parma | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Total goals (H2H) | 18 | 17 |
| Wins (H2H) | 4 | 4 |
| Clean sheets (H2H) | 2 | 1 |
The head-to-head metrics underline how evenly matched these clubs are historically — both appear to have won four of the recorded meetings in the dataset and the total goals are almost identical. That parity helps explain why this fixture often produces tight encounters.
Market view and tactical implications
| Market picks | Selection / probability |
|---|---|
| Match winner (model) | Parma — 43% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 — 58% |
| BTTS | No — 65% |
The market makers and model highlighted in the data favour a low-scoring game: under 2.5 and BTTS: No are the cleaner signals. That fits the season picture — both teams have modest shot conversion rates (Parma 24% this season, Udinese 27%) and, importantly, Udinese produce more shots on target overall (44 to Parma’s 37), which suggests they create chances but also concede opportunities.
How the game might play out — three scenarios
- Parma win: A home victory would require Parma to stop conceding cheap chances and to lift an attack that has been blunt across the season (9 goals). Their tendency to score late could tell in a tight finish — but they must turn late pressure into clinical finishing.
- Draw (most likely statistical outcome): With both sides struggling for consistency and the market pointing to under 2.5 goals, a 0–0/1–1 draw is a credible outcome. That result would leave questions over both teams’ ability to convert dominant spells into points.
- Udinese win: A victory for Udinese would underline their slightly better goal output and shot volume; it would also highlight Parma’s defensive vulnerability. For Udinese, turning shots on target into goals early (their top-minute window this season is 31–45) would be decisive.
In short, expect a low-tempo Serie A contest where small margins — set-piece concentration, finishing from limited chances, and who concedes first — will decide the result. The numbers favour a close, low-scoring game; if either side wants three points they will have to be sharper in the final third than their season averages suggest.