Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: head to head & Predictions

Sassuolo host Fiorentina with both sides trying to move out of a tactical fog rather than chase fireworks. The numbers tell you why: across their last 10 games, Sassuolo average 1.3 goals for and 1.7 against; Fiorentina sit at 0.8 for and 1.1 against. It is an awkward mix — one team a little too open, the other not creating enough — and it has fuelled a brittle mood in Florence, where Edin Dzeko could face a fine and a possible suspension after his megaphone exchange with supporters following the 2–0 defeat at Atalanta (as reported via Yahoo). The noise around the club is getting louder; the output on the pitch has not followed.

Form check: where the margins are right now

Recent form points to a chess match rather than a sprint. Sassuolo have failed to score in 30% of their last 10; Fiorentina in 40%. Clean sheets are equally scarce (3 vs 1), and neither attack is in convincing rhythm. If this becomes a game decided by discipline and patience, that probably suits the visitors’ lower-risk defensive trend — provided they can find a way to threaten more often.

Key indicator (last 10)	Sassuolo SAS	Fiorentina FIO
Goals scored (per game)	1.3	0.8
Goals conceded (per game)	1.7	1.1
Failed to score	30%	40%
Clean sheets	3	1
Yellow cards (per game)	1.9	2.5

Head‑to‑head: unpredictable, and occasionally emphatic

The recent history between these two has swung violently: Fiorentina’s 5–1 win in April 2024 sits alongside Sassuolo’s 1–0 victory in January of the same year. Over their latest run of meetings, the wins are tied at four apiece and the goal tally is narrowly in Fiorentina’s favour (18–16). Expect little deference to history here; momentum swings have been part of this fixture’s DNA.

Sassuolo: solid base, but still too easy to reach

The season picture is more steady than spectacular. Sassuolo have banked 17 points from 13 matches (5–2–6), scoring and conceding 16. The trend-line is clear: they see goals, but too often at both ends. A heavy 0–3 loss to Atalanta and a 2–1 win over Genoa in November underline the inconsistency. The underlying league profile (Over 2.5 in 54% of games, BTTS at 46%) suggests they don’t live in end-to-end chaos, but they do allow teams to hang around.

Fiorentina: defensive control without the punch — and the Dzeko spotlight

Zero wins from 13 league games is the unvarnished reality for Fiorentina (0–6–7, 6 points). The defence has tightened a touch (1.1 conceded per game over the last 10), but the attack is stuck at 0.8 per game in that same window and needs a jolt. A goalless home defeat to Inter and a 2–0 loss at Atalanta tell a familiar story; the 1–1 against Juventus hints at resilience, but not a solution. The tension around Edin Dzeko — potentially facing a fine and possible suspension after his post‑Atalanta exchange with fans — is an unhelpful subplot for a side craving clarity in the final third.

What decides it — and what the models say

Model projections edge toward a low‑event game: Under 2.5 is rated at 55%, with BTTS No at 58%, and a narrow nudge for Fiorentina in the 1X2 (36%). That tallies with the form: Sassuolo concede chances, Fiorentina struggle to finish theirs. If the hosts control transition moments and keep the game in the middle third, they can tilt this toward their tempo; if the visitors squeeze the space and trust set patterns, a single big moment might be enough.

Scenarios: a home win would validate Sassuolo’s steady if uneven trend into the mid‑table pack; an away victory would say more — it would cool the atmosphere around the Dzeko storyline and suggest that Fiorentina have found a way to convert control into results. Another stalemate would keep the questions open for both projects heading into a busy December.