Udinese enter this round in the top half with 18 points from 13 matches, but their month has been choppy: a 2–0 win at Roma was bracketed by a 0–3 home defeat to Bologna and a 0–2 loss at Parma. The numbers tell a similar story — they’ve conceded 20 times already — yet there’s a hint of control in recent weeks, with fewer cards and a steadier start in games.
Genoa are six places and seven points worse off, and the trend line is chaotic rather than calm: a 3–3 at Cagliari and 2–2 at Fiorentina underline how open their contests have become. For a side with just two league wins, that volatility is a risk and a route to points in equal measure.
History leans towards Genoa in this fixture over the past couple of seasons, but the present feels finely balanced: Udinese look more efficient lately; Genoa are more prolific in chance creation and far more “BTTS-friendly”. That tension — control versus chaos — is the essence of this match-up.
Form and trends: last five matches
Recent data paints two contrasting rhythms: Udinese matches have cooled, Genoa’s have turned into shootouts. The table below captures the shift.
| Key indicator (last 5) |  Udinese UDI |  Genoa GEN |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (Yes) | 20% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Scored first | 60% | 60% |
| Minutes per goal (for) | 50 | 50 |
| Minutes per goal (against) | 64.3 | 50 |
Udinese’s last five have been calmer, with only two in five going over 2.5 and just one BTTS. Genoa’s have been the opposite, four in five over 2.5 and BTTS in four. That may force Udinese to decide: do they drag Genoa into a slower, more controlled game, or risk trading chances?
Season snapshot: table stakes and baseline
The gap is real: Udinese are tracking mid-table metrics; Genoa’s profile is closer to the relegation places. The underlying season data puts numbers on those storylines.
| Season indicator | Udinese UDI | Genoa GEN |
|---|---|---|
| Points (after 13) | 18 | 11 |
| Record (W–D–L) | 5–3–5 | 2–5–6 |
| Goals For–Against | 14–20 | 13–20 |
| BTTS (season) | 54% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 (season) | 46% | 62% |
Both concede at the same clip (20), but Genoa’s games break open more often. Udinese’s season-long “scored first” mark (38%) is on the low side; at home, managing the first half may be their clearest path to control.
Head-to-head: Genoa’s recent edge, mostly low-scoring
Genoa have taken three of the last four league meetings without conceding, and the series has often been tight.
| Date | Fixture | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr 2025 | Genoa vs Udinese | 1–0 |
| 01 Dec 2024 | Udinese vs Genoa | 0–2 |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Genoa vs Udinese | 2–0 |
| 01 Oct 2023 | Udinese vs Genoa | 2–2 |
| 22 Jan 2022 | Genoa vs Udinese | 0–0 |
Across the wider recent sample, Genoa lead on clean sheets in this fixture and have scored slightly more, but the margins are narrow — the kind of series that often hinges on a set piece or a single transition.
Attacking profiles: volume vs efficiency
Genoa have produced more shots on target this season, but Udinese’s recent conversion has spiked. If Udinese keep the game in controlled phases, that efficiency matters; if it becomes end-to-end, Genoa’s volume comes into play.
| Attacking indicator (season) | Udinese UDI | Genoa GEN |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 14 | 13 |
| Shots on target | 49 | 53 |
| Shot conversion | 29% | 25% |
| Top minute window | 31–45 (29%) | 31–45 (21%) |
| Offsides (against) | 13 | 19 |
Discipline and details also matter: season averages show Udinese committing fewer fouls (13.85 to 15.46) and taking slightly more corners (4.85 to 4.00). Genoa’s higher card count (2.69 per game) is another small hinge in a match where set plays could swing momentum.
Model view and match scenarios
The predictive view tilts narrowly towards the hosts and a restrained scoreline — even if Genoa’s recent matches have been anything but restrained.
| Market | Model lean | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match winner (1X2) | Udinese | 50% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62% |
| BTTS | No | 51% |
If Udinese win: it reinforces the sense of mid-table security and validates their recent tilt towards control. If Genoa nick it (as they have in this fixture lately), it would puncture Udinese’s momentum and hand Genoa a badly needed springboard. A draw — likely low-scoring if the model has it right — would keep the pressure largely on Genoa, whose December schedule stiffens immediately after this.
The risk for Udinese is allowing Genoa’s high-event rhythm to take over; the risk for Genoa is that a tight game exposes their habit of conceding at regular intervals. The first half should tell us which version we’re getting.