Alaves host Real Sociedad in La Liga on 6 December 2025 in a fixture shaped more by small margins than headline stars. Both sides arrive with inconsistent league form and clear statistical contrasts: Alaves have struggled to turn chances into points across the season, while Real Sociedad carry more firepower but have been leaky at the back.
Where the numbers set the tone
This is a game between two mid‑table sides separated by a single point in the early season table: Alaves have 15 points from 14 matches (4W‑3D‑7L; 12 goals scored, 15 conceded), Real Sociedad sit one place and one point above with 16 points from 14 (4W‑4D‑6L; 19 scored, 21 conceded). On form, Real Sociedad have shown greater attacking rhythm in recent weeks — 12 goals in their last five fixtures compared with Alaves’ ten — but both teams have defensive questions to answer.
| Season snapshot | Alaves | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Points / Games | 15 / 14 | 16 / 14 |
| W‑D‑L | 4‑3‑7 | 4‑4‑6 |
| Goals For – Against | 12–15 | 19–21 |
| Goal difference | ‑3 | ‑2 |
Recent trends that matter
Alaves’ profile is unusual: their season shot numbers are modest but they posted a very high shot‑conversion figure across the last five matches (77% in that sample), suggesting a short hot streak in finishing rather than sustained attacking dominance. Conversely, Real Sociedad show greater attacking volume across the campaign (70 shots on target this season) and a higher overall goals return, but they concede frequently: their season BTTS rate is high (79% across the season, 80% across the last five).
| Recent form (last 5) | Alaves | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (last 5) | 10 | 12 |
| Min per goal (last 5) — For | 45 min | 37.5 min |
| BTTS (last 5) | 40% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 (last 5) | 60% | 80% |
Attacking and defensive snapshots
Real Sociedad are the more dangerous side in terms of sustained attacking output this season: 19 goals, 70 shots on target and a 27% shot‑conversion rate. Alaves have fewer opportunities overall (12 goals, 48 shots on target) but their late‑game finishing is notable — a top minute window for Alaves is 76‑90 (36% of their goals) while Real Sociedad score most often between 46‑60 (40%). That timing detail suggests Alaves may try to frustrate and hit late, whereas Real Sociedad aim to press for a control period early in the second half.
| Offensive comparison | Alaves | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For (season) | 12 | 19 |
| Shots on target (season) | 48 | 70 |
| Shot conversion (season) | 25% | 27% |
| Top scoring minute window | 76–90 (36%) | 46–60 (40%) |
Head‑to‑head and the market signal
Historically, the head‑to‑head record favours Real Sociedad: across recent meetings Real Sociedad have outscored Alaves 16–8 and recorded five wins to Alaves’ two, while keeping three clean sheets to Alaves’ one. The market model in the provided data also leans towards Real Sociedad as the more likely winner (market probability shown as 34% for Real Sociedad), and it flags a low expectation for an open, high‑score contest — Under 2.5 is the market selection (63%), while BTTS is projected as No (55%). That combination underlines a view that Real Sociedad’s greater chances may be offset by defensive vulnerability and Alaves’ tendency to grind results out.
| Head‑to‑head & market | Alaves | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| H2H wins (recent) | 2 | 5 |
| H2H goals (recent) | 8 | 16 |
| H2H clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Market: match‑winner (pick) | — | 34% |
How this could play out
Alaves retain the home advantage and the ability to score late, but their season numbers point to inconsistency and defensive fragility. Real Sociedad bring more sustained attacking pressure, though they concede regularly and that reduces confidence that they will turn dominance into a comfortable win.
Possible scenarios:
- Real Sociedad edge it: if their attacking volume translates into clinical chances, a narrow away win would confirm the market’s slight preference and justify their better season goal tally.
- Low‑scoring, tight game: the market’s Under 2.5 and BTTS No signals reflect a match where both teams cancel each other out and one low‑quality finishing moment decides it.
- Opener‑heavy and unpredictable: given Real Sociedad’s high BTTS rate, the match could open up — if that happens, Alaves’ late scoring habit makes them dangerous on the break.
What matters for both teams after this game is immediate: Alaves need points to climb away from the lower half, while Real Sociedad cannot afford to let their chances go to waste if they want to stabilise an otherwise stop‑start league campaign. The upcoming fixtures also matter — Real Sociedad travel to Girona midweek and Alaves face Real Madrid next weekend — so both sides will weigh risk against reward.