La Liga returns to Girona on Sunday evening (30 November) as Girona host Real Madrid. The numbers point to a clear away advantage, but this fixture carries a history of volatility — and both form sheets contain elements worth probing.
Current form and context
Girona arrive having played 13 league games: 2 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats, with 12 goals scored and 25 conceded (GD −13) and 11 points. Their season profile is one of attacking intent but defensive fragility — BTTS in 62% of matches and Over 2.5 in 54% of fixtures this season suggest entertaining games for neutrals, even if points are scarce.
Real Madrid’s season snapshot in the available data is compact but telling: in five competitive matches recorded here they have 4 wins and 1 defeat, 12 goals for and 5 against, and sit on 12 points in that sample. Their BTTS rate is demonstrably lower (40%) than Girona’s, while they push matches over 2.5 goals more often (60%).
Table — Head-to-head summary
| Head-to-head |  Girona GIR |  Real Madrid REA |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (H2H total) | 11 | 27 |
| Wins (H2H) | 2 | 7 |
| Clean sheets (H2H) | 0 | 4 |
How each side is built (what the stats reveal)
Girona score at a decent rate when they click — a 25% shot conversion for the season sample and a very high shot conversion in their last five fixtures (56% in that subset) — but their defensive numbers are the problem. They concede often: goals against come at roughly every 46.8 minutes this season, and the overall negative goal difference underlines a transitional defence.
Real Madrid look more efficient: they create and convert at consistent intervals (a goal every c.37.5 minutes in the broader sample), with a stronger defensive record in the provided data (fewer goals conceded per minute and more clean sheets in head-to-head). Their top scoring window is 16–30 minutes, which suggests they aim to seize control early.
Table — Season indicators
| Key indicator (season) | Girona GIR | Real Madrid REA |
|---|---|---|
| Games played (sample) | 13 | 5 |
| Goals For – Against | 12–25 | 12–5 |
| Points (sample) | 11 | 12 |
| BTTS (season) | 62% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 (season) | 54% | 60% |
Recent five-game pulse
Look closer at short-term figures and the picture sharpens. Girona’s last-five profile shows a high incidence of both teams scoring and more late goals, whereas the recent Real Madrid sample shows better attacking rhythm with fewer matches where both teams find the net.
Table — Last 5 matches (selected metrics)
| Last 5 (selected) | Girona GIR | Real Madrid REA |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (last 5) | 80% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 (last 5) | 60% | 60% |
| Scored first (last 5) | 60% | 20% |
| Min per goal (for) | 50 | 45 |
| Avg corners (for) | 4 | 6 |
Atmosphere and off-field noise
Real Madrid carry normal club-level stories into the week: recent media items mention progress on a contract for Vinicius Jr, and the club apologised after a mistake in a tribute video referencing Diogo Jota and Andre Silva. Those items are friction, not calamity, but they are reminders that the club’s calendar is busy — and travel to Girona requires focus.
Market signals and what to expect
The market model in the available data gives a sizable edge to Real Madrid (66% probability) and suggests a strong chance of goals: Over 2.5 at 68% and BTTS at 72%. That aligns with the season patterns — Girona’s defensive vulnerabilities plus Real Madrid’s attacking efficiency make a high-scoring game plausible.
Table — Market probabilities
| Market pick | Girona GIR | Real Madrid REA |
|---|---|---|
| Match winner (probability) | 34% | 66% |
| Over 2.5 (probability) | 32% | 68% |
| BTTS: Yes (probability) | 28% | 72% |
Scenarios — what victory, draw or defeat would mean
- Real Madrid win: Confirms the statistical advantage and the idea that their efficiency is translating into results. It would also underline Girona’s defensive problems when facing top opponents.
- Draw: A positive outcome for Girona, showing the home side can frustrate and exploit Real Madrid on the counter; for Real Madrid it would be a missed chance and increase scrutiny over inconsistency away from their better-performing samples.
- Girona win: A significant statement about Girona’s capacity to punch above their standing at home and a reminder that their head-to-head history includes shocks — Real Madrid’s away trips are not immune to being punished if concentration lapses.
Real Madrid are favourites on paper and models; Girona have the attacking numbers to make it uncomfortable. Expect a game with clear goal potential and decisive moments early — the 16–30 and late 76–90 minute windows have been productive across the samples — and consequences for both clubs depending on how the match unfolds.