Levante host Villarreal in La Liga on 14 December with the form lines pointing in one direction. The hosts are anchored near the bottom after a bruising run, while the visitors arrive with far sharper numbers over the last month. History between the sides has not been kind to Levante either, which only increases the pressure on a home side short on goals and clean sheets.
Form lines point one way
The last-10 data is stark. Levante’s sequence has been heavy on defeats and light on goals; Villarreal’s, by contrast, has genuine momentum and control. That contrast frames the tactical story: can Levante slow the game down and avoid the early concessions that have repeatedly undone them, or will Villarreal’s more reliable attack dictate the rhythm?
| Metric (last 10) | Levante | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Form | LLLLLDLWDL | WWWWWWDLWW |
| Goals scored (avg) | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 5 |
If Levante cannot raise their attacking output, the match risks following the pattern above. Villarreal’s recent baseline of 2.1 goals per game across the same span is a worrying benchmark for a defence that has struggled to keep opponents quiet.
Levante’s season at a glance
In the league picture, Levante are stuck in survival mode. Fifteen matches have returned just two wins and a negative goal difference, and the recent run has included defeats at Valencia (1–0) and at home to Athletic Club (0–2), plus a 3–1 loss at Atletico Madrid. The one relief in early December came in the cup at Cieza (0–1), but that did not shift the broader league trend.
| GP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 9 |
The underlying season metrics add to the concern. Levante have averaged just 3.13 corners for while allowing 7.33 against, and their “Min/Goal (Against)” sits at 48.2 minutes, a drumbeat of pressure that rarely allows them to settle. They also start games relatively well (their top scoring window is 0–15 this season), but sustaining that threat has been the bigger issue.
Villarreal’s mixed calendar, strong trend
Villarreal’s overall trend is positive even if Europe has demanded a price. The Champions League group was unforgiving (0 wins in six, 4 goals for, 13 against), and a 2–3 defeat at FC Copenhagen this week underlined that. Domestically and in the cups, though, the gears have been sharper: a gritty league win at Mallorca (2–1) and an eye-catching 6–0 in the cup at Ciudad de Lucena point to depth and cutting edge that Levante have struggled to match.
One detail to watch is timing: Villarreal’s top scoring window recently has been immediately after half-time (46–60). If they reach the interval level or ahead, they tend to squeeze matches in that phase, a test of Levante’s concentration that has not been consistently passed this season.
Recent head-to-head: old scars and recent reminders
Even if you strip away friendlies, the match-up has often tilted Villarreal’s way, with emphatic scorelines in La Liga and the summer calendar alike. Levante’s wins in this fixture have been rare in recent years, and the heavy away margins linger as a psychological backdrop.
| Date | Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2023 | Friendlies | Villarreal | 3–1 | Levante |
| 03 Aug 2022 | Friendlies | Levante | 2–0 | Villarreal |
| 02 Apr 2022 | La Liga | Villarreal | 5–0 | Levante |
| 03 Jan 2022 | La Liga | Villarreal | 0–0 | Levante |
| 29 Jul 2021 | Friendlies | Levante | 1–5 | Villarreal |
Two results stand out: 5–0 to Villarreal in April 2022 and 1–5 in a 2021 friendly. Those are old games, but they reinforce the pattern of Villarreal finding space and finishing with authority against this opponent.
What the models say
Model projections lean clearly towards the away side, with goals expected and a good chance both teams contribute. That aligns with Villarreal’s recent scoring reliability and Levante’s tendency to concede.
| Market | Pick | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner (1X2) | Villarreal | 64% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| BTTS | BTTS: YES | 60% |
For a broader view of the round and where this game fits within it, you can scan the la liga betting tips page for context and comparisons across the card: la liga betting tips.
Possible scenarios
- If Villarreal score first and control the restart after half-time (their favoured window), the visitors should be able to manage the game on their terms and press for a second.
- If Levante strike early and compress the midfield, they can turn this into a grind and lean on the 60% BTTS expectation to keep it live into the final quarter.
- A high-scoring draw would stabilise Levante’s mood; a Villarreal win would confirm the gap in confidence and execution that the numbers have been hinting at.
Either way, the onus is on Levante to disrupt the script. Without that, the form book—and recent history—both argue for an away day that suits Villarreal.